Yemen's future

For months, Yemen's people took to the streets to protest against their long-time autocratic president Ali Abdullah Saleh. The presidential elections held in the impoverished nation on February 21 are supposed to set the seal on Saleh's departure.

For this reason alone, a great many voters cast their ballot for the former vice president, Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. There was no alternative anyway, as Hadi was the sole candidate. This was part of the deal brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council, in which Saleh agreed to relinquish power to Hadi in exchange for immunity from prosecution.

Many Yemenis now hope for a new beginning for their country. After 33 years under Saleh's rule, Yemen faces enormous challenges and threatens to become a failed state. The poorest nation on the Arabian Peninsula has become a safe haven for the terror network al Qaeda. With its 24 million people, Yemen belongs to the least developed countries in the world. The population is growing quickly, a large part live in poverty and there is insufficient access to clean water. Illiteracy and unemployment are widespread.

The population's resentment against the Saleh regime has grown steadily in the North and South of the country in particular. The Shiite Houthi rebels, who control the northwestern part of the country, have been involved in an armed insurgency against the central government for years. In the former Communist South, a separatist movement has been promoting secession from the North. Since the mass protests against Saleh began last year, Yemen's problems have even worsened.

A president with no power base

The election of a new president is supposed to save Yemen from a catastrophe. For this reason, the southern native Hadi has received support from all sides: from the US, which plays a very influential role in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, but also the European Union and the Arab League.

However, political scientist Elham Manea from the University of Zurich in Switzerland doubts that Hadi is the man to spark a new beginning in Yemen.

"Hadi is Saleh's candidate," said Manea, who has Yemeni roots. "This means that Saleh remains in power, even though he is losing his title as president."

Although Hadi has been vice president since 1994, he has hardly played a role at all politically. Tim Petschulat, head of the German think-tank Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Yemen, said this could be to his credit. Hadi's previous reservation could benefit the future president. Now he could and would have to approach all relevant groups in the country and include them in a national dialog, Petschulat said.

"He has no power base and no clan that supports him," Petschulat said. "So he can't expect that people will support him just for nothing."

Calls for boycott

Some groups, however, are not planning to do so - on the contrary. The separatists in southern Yemen called for a boycott of the presidential elections. Election day itself was overshadowed by violence. Several people were killed. The Houthis also boycotted the polls and oppose the future president because they identify him with the old regime.

"A national dialog should have started way before the elections," Manea said. "Now the southern Yemenis and the Houthis feel left out. This was a missed opportunity."

The interests of young activists, who initially got the ball rolling toward a change of power in Yemen, were disregarded by the government as well.

The former regime's influence

But even without the protests of these three groups, which feel neglected by the central government, Hadi's transitional presidency will be a challenge.

"It's going to become very difficult for Hadi to get the military under his control," said Gabriele vom Bruck, Yemen expert at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London. The future president has a very poor relationship with Saleh's son Ahmed, who continues to command the notorious Republican Guards and apparently still lives in the presidential palace.

"Hadi has announced that he will not be moving into the palace, but will continue living in his residence," Bruck said. "It's significantly symbolic."

So for Ali Abdullah Saleh, there's still a room free in the palace.

Author: Anne Allmeling / sac
Editor: Rob Mudge