Time for change?

For months last year, Yemen's regime critics filled the streets, chanting slogans and risking their lives to get rid of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. In the end, the demonstrators achieved their main goal: the resignation of their autocratic ruler.

A new president is set to be elected on February 21, and before leaving Yemen for medical treatment in the US earlier this week, Saleh apologized for "previous mistakes." But many demonstrators feel cheated.

Controversial immunity

The protest movement in Yemen is furious that parliament granted Saleh comprehensive immunity before his departure. This had been in the cards for some time - the immunity arrangement was part of a mediation deal already negotiated by the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2011. Nonetheless tens of thousands of people once again took to the streets of the capital, Sanaa, to vent their anger at the move.

Demonstrators are particularly critical of the extent of immunity granted to Saleh. "It covers all potential crimes committed until the end of his term of office on February 21," explained Tim Petschulat, the head of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation office in Sanaa.

This means Saleh could still get rid of enemies or crack down on demonstrators ahead of the election without risking any prosecution. Petschulat says this particular immunity clause is rather "problematic" under international law, an assessment shared by rights organizations like Human Rights Watch.

Moreover, the immunity deal also extends to further members of Saleh's family clan, albeit in a slightly watered-down version. Guido Steinberg of the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) says it's crucial what will happen to Saleh's brother, his son, and his nephew, all of whom control essential parts of the security apparatus. There is no indication yet as to how the president's family will react once Saleh leaves office.

But Petschulat concedes the immunity deal is a necessary evil: "It's the only way to get rid of Saleh." In spite of the massive protests, the parliamentary opposition in Yemen as well as many international observers were convinced there were no other legal means to induce Saleh to give up his post. "No political change without immunity," argued Petschulat.

Saleh's successor: weak but harmless?

It remains to be seen whether Yemen will indeed undergo any fundamental change or reform. The election on February 21 is marred by the fact that there is only one candidate: Saleh's current deputy Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi.

The 66-year-old, who boasts a long military career, is considered an old confidant of Saleh. However, Hadi does not belong to any of the important Yemeni clans and therefore has little support among the population.

"Hadi always stood in the shadow of Saleh," said SWP analyst Steinberg. "Saleh makes the important decisions, and his successor will probably try to be a loyal deputy. In any case, Hadi is no man of the future, but a representative of the old regime."

The new president will be elected for two years. He is to head a transitional government of national unity which will be tasked with drafting a new constitution and organizing parliamentary and presidential elections. Although Petschulat is skeptical whether Hadi, of all people, will be capable of pushing this through, there is a slim chance he might succeed.

Many Yemenis view Hadi as "weak but harmless," which could have positive results. Hadi will have to get all the important political forces to the negotiating table because he needs their support. Petschulat says Hadi should be given the customary 100 days in office before any verdict is reached on whether he can unite the country.

Saudi Arabia's controversial role

Yemen's new president will be facing considerable challenges: al Qaeda fighters have gained a foothold in the south, and the western provinces have already been cut off from the east. In the north, Shiite Houthi rebels have strengthened their hold on some provinces.

In addition, Yemen - one of the poorest countries in the Arab world - is not only in dire economic straits, it's also suffering from acute water shortage. "It is hard to imagine how a new government will manage to run the country," said Steinberg.

Maybe with outside help? No neighboring state has a greater vested interest in a stable Yemen than Saudi Arabia. "The Saudis are sort of a protector of Yemen," said Steinberg. They try to buy political influence by providing financial support to various Yemeni groups.

"Riyadh also believes it can determine who will be Yemen's next president," said Steinberg. Saleh was long supported by Saudi Arabia, but those days are over. The Saudis dropped him because they no longer believed he could quell the increasing protests and unrest in Yemen.

However, Saleh may have tricked its large Saudi neighbor to the north: "The agreement was that he resigns," Steinberg said. But it remains to be seen whether he will actually withdraw from government affairs.

"This will be a reliable gauge of just how much clout the Saudis have in Yemen," said Steinberg. "If Saleh continues to pull the strings behind the scenes and if Yemen crumbles as a result, then Saudi Arabia's policy will also have failed."

Author: Thomas Latschan / nk

Editor: Martin Kuebler