Yemen elections

With the world's eyes fixed on the ongoing crisis in Syria, little attention has been paid to the fact that Yemen is about to choose a president.

In November, four months after being seriously injured in an assassination attempt, long-time autocratic president Ali Abdullah Saleh stepped down. He transferred his powers to his deputy Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi on an interim basis.

Viewed superficially, Yemen has managed to avoid the sort of violence that has hit Syria and has taken the first steps in a peaceful transition to a more democratic form of government.

But surface appearances are deceiving. Experts say this election, in itself, is unlikely to lead to long-term democratic institutions, and that Yemen is a powder keg of potentially explosive internal divisions.

Revolutionaries, separatists and Islamists

Early on in the Arab Spring last year, predominantly young Yemenis took to the streets to demand the ousting of Saleh, who had ruled first North Yemen and then the united country since 1978. Those same young people are particularly dissatisfied with Tuesday's election.

"It's a betrayal of our revolutionary ideals and of the many people who sacrificed their lives for democratic change, Wisam Mohammed Samei, an activist from the youth movement Taiz, told DW. "The election is part of a Gulf states initiative aimed at securing legal immunity for President Saleh and his clan.“

For that reason, Samei says, the vote is a "farce." Large segments of the Yemeni youth movement are planning to boycott the election.

Another group that will be staying away from polling stations is the Hirak movement. It wants to see more rights and governmental participation for Southern Yemenis in decisions made in the Northern capital, Sanaa. Some view the vote as a ruse ultimately aimed at shoring up the political status quo and are even calling for southern Yemen to declare independence from Sanaa.

Yemen is also plagued by conflicts with the Houthi ethnic minority, and in the region of Abin, Islamist groups have been gaining strength - hardly the sort of stability usually needed to stage a successful election.

One-man show

Others dispute whether the vote should even be called an election, since the only candidate for president is Hadi himself.

"These aren't true elections of the sort we're familiar with, but rather a kind of referendum," Fuad Al-Salahi, professor of political sociology at the University of Sanaa, told DW.

Hadi has pledged that after the vote he will hold talks with all the factions concerned about the future of the country. That could be a step toward true democracy.

"It could lay the groundwork for further transition and help political parties work together," al Salahi said. He predicted the vast majority of Yemenis will vote for Hadi, although he added that the yes votes would signal approval of the transition process, rather than support for the candidate himself.

Young activists disagree, of course, but they do acknowledge that at least all Yemenis had the choice of whether they wanted to participate in the vote.

"The youth movement isn't taking part, but we won't disrupt the elections, either," Samei said.

A Putin scenario?

Saleh is currently in the United States recuperating from injuries he suffered in the assassination attempt. But some Yemenis worry that, although he is physically absent from the country, his influence is still very much present.

"In a de facto sense, Saleh is still in charge," Samei said. "He and his relatives still control the army and the transitional government."

Experts, also, don't rule out the possibility of a Saleh comeback, perhaps in a fashion similar to Russia's Vladimir Putin. In 2008, he traded offices with then Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev after being banned from running for a further term as president.

"Saleh could use a 'Russian model' to regain power," al-Salahi said. "He could return and run, for example, for the chairmanship of the ruling party, only to get himself elected president again after a two year interim phase."

Right now such scenarios are only speculation. But youth leaders say they will remain vigilant.

"We're staying on the streets and in the city squares until our demands are met," Samei said. "And if they're not, we'll keep protesting until the whole system falls, the government and the opposition."

While acknowledging that the old guard could try to retain power through backdoor tricks, al-Salahi thinks young people would be better served working within the political system.

"The revolutionary youth should take part in the elections, get more involved in political parties and institutions and actively contribute to a new constitution," al-Salahi said.

A lot is at stake in Yemen's curious, one-candidate presidential election. And if the result does not begin to mend the deep divisions in Yemeni society, Yemen's seeming stability could quickly disintegrate.

Author: Nader Alsarras / jc
Editor: Michael Knigge