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Decisive ballot?

November 8, 2011

It should be a routine vote ratifying Italy's budget for last year, 2010, but it could turn into an indication that Silvio Berlusconi's wafer-thin majority has evaporated. Italy's prime minister is in peril yet again.

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Silvio Berlusconi
He's no stranger to adversity, but the heat is really on BerlusconiImage: dapd

Politicians in Italy will vote for a second time on ratifying the country's 2010 spending on Tuesday, usually a procedural affair. For Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's threadbare majority, votes like these have become increasingly difficult to win - and defeat in this instance could have grave consequences.

Italy has come under direct pressure from European politicians and indirect pressure from financial markets to introduce a fresh round of austerity measures designed to bring its sovereign debt under control.

Some members of Berlusconi's center-right coalition are increasingly frustrated by the slow pace of economic reform in Rome. Several have said they might oppose the motion or abstain on Tuesday. In typically combative style, Berlusconi fought back in Tuesday's papers.

"I want to look anyone who tries to betray me in the eyes," the Italian prime minister told the Libero newspaper. "I am sure that [on Tuesday] we will have a majority to carry out the reforms that Europe is asking for and that are needed to boost the economy."

Even without unanimous support from the ruling coalition, the crucial motion may still pass. Several reports in the Italian press on Tuesday said the center-left opposition was planning to abstain from the vote. They said they wanted to highlight Berlusconi's political fragility without halting progress on the bill. The opposition is also preparing yet another no-confidence motion directly targeting Berlusconi's government.

Were parliamentarians to vote against the budget ratification, Italian President Giorgio Napolitano would be able to call a confidence vote.

Allies backing away

The consensus within Berlusconi's People of Freedom (PDL) party is that the prime minister should seek to expand his coalition in order to cement the administration's position. The Northern League, Berlusconi's controversial existing coalition partners, have instead advocated early elections aiming to establish a more stable government.

Italian Interior Minister Roberto Maroni
Interior Minister Roberto Maroni has said he thinks Berlusconi no longer has a majorityImage: dapd

PDL member Roberto Formigioni, the president of the Lombardia region, has led the internal charge to depose the prime minister.

"Berlusconi could also choose the course that I suggested several months ago, namely to publicly announce that he is giving up the office of prime minister for the good of this country," Formigioni said on Monday.

Giulano Ferrara, a former member of a Berlusconi cabinet who now heads the Il Foglia newspaper, was even more vocal: "It's now certain that Berlusconi is in the process of preparing to step down. I'd guess it will happen in a matter of hours, some even say it's a matter of minutes."

A national debt of 1.9 trillion euro ($2.6 trillion) has long rendered Italy a candidate for international financial assistance, but poor economic growth forecasts and increased political instability have led to more fevered speculation that the country might follow in the footsteps of Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The interest that Italy must pay on loans reached a record level of 6.67 percent in Monday's trading, a rate that many analysts consider unsustainable.

According to a late October poll, Berlusconi's public approval ratings have slumped to an all-time low of 22 percent. Tens of thousands of opposition supporters took to the streets of Rome on Saturday calling on the prime minister to step down.

As well as the political tribulations, he also faces three separate legal trials; accused of bribery, tax fraud, abuse of power and paying for sex with a 17-year-old nightclub dancer.

Author: Mark Hallam (AFP, AP, Reuters)
Editor: Nancy Isenson