Political fragmentation

Right now, Spiros Danellis is a welcome guest on radio and TV shows in Greece. The architect from Crete is campaigning for a political party that may just become the high flyer of the early elections. It is called "To Potami" (the river). The social democratic group founded just before the European elections in 2014 by journalist Stavros Theodorakis won 6.6 percent of the vote off the cuff. Now Danellis has another political plan in mind: in the upcoming elections on January 25, To Potami should become the third strongest party and thus assume responsibilities in government, ideally as a junior partner in a pro-European coalition.

It is quite possible, even though the party will likely receive fewer votes compared to the preceding European election, opinion polls say. But right now there are so many parties in the Greek party landscape that even a newcomer with five percent of the vote could end up in third place.

"The former catch-all parties are extremely fragmented and this holds true especially for the center-left that had to assume greater responsibility at the onset of the debt crisis, explained Spiros Danellis in an interview with DW.

The man knows what he's talking about. In the 2009 European elections he was elected to the EU parliament for the socialist PASOK party,which was omnipotent at that time.

Then, the debt crisis came along - and a five-year recession. Today, Danellis prefers to be committed to the competition, whereas signs of disintegration are showing in his former party, and former socialist leader George Papandreou is leading his own group, which will probably fail to clear the three-percent hurdle for seats in parliament.

Old parties paying for the mistakes of the past

After the debt crisis began, the political parties made many mistakes, says Danellis, essentially also referring to his former party, PASOK. Above all, they did not manage to carry out necessary reforms and to combat rampant clientelism, disappointing many voters.

This is exactly what his new party, To Potami, would like: To change everything, but not destroy our country in the process. Critics accuse the new group of making a statement with pro-European politicians and fresh faces, but not having a concrete election platform. Party leader Theodorakis counters the accusation with disarming honesty. "We are a movement that has not yet developed into a party; we don't even have a real party headquarters, but we are working on it," he said at a rally in autumn.

Voters are definitely searching for alternatives, believes Yorgos Tzogopoulos from the Athenian think tank ELIAMEP. New faces and new ideas are needed. That is one of the reasons why splinter parties are being founded, Tzogopoulos told DW. But there are also other reasons that are less pleasant: "First of all, the economic crisis has provided impetus for populism – a typical example for that is the right-wing populist party Independent Greeks, which now has 13 members in parliament. Many politicians do not want to cooperate with their likes; they would rather isolate themselves, or found their own parties, which they also try to dominate."

Extremist "Golden Dawn" could become the third-strongest force

Tzogopoulos uses the election campaign 2012 as as prime example for the specific characteristics of political life in Greece: back then, the country's economically liberal politicians tried to agree to a mutual electoral program.

They failed completely. Finally, all the leaders of the liberal movement embarked on election campaigns with their own parties. Among them, was former foreign minister, Dora Bakoyannis, former German FDP politician Yorgo Chatzimarkakis, and advertiser Thanos Tzimeros. They all failed to reach the three percent hurdle.

To Potami, the socialists, the communists and, last but not least, the radical right-wing party Golden Dawn are courting the electorate to garner enough votes to become the decisive third-place party, the kingmaker for a ruling coalition, while conservatives and the left-wing opposition are striving for electoral victory.

The third strongest party will inevitably be a potential coalition partner, or could then, according to the Greek constitution, even be given the task of forming a government, if the two largest parties' efforts to form a coalition fail.

The nightmare scenario is: the right-wing extremists, who have gained power over the course of the economic crisis and are now just behind "To Potami" according to opinion polls, end up in third place and are given a government mandate.

And that could happen, even though all leading politicians in the party are in pre-trial detention for being members of a criminal organization and are awaiting their hearings. "That would be the biggest conceivable political accident," warns Spiros Danellis. And he adds, "Imagine the detained leader of Golden Dawn being escorted by the police to the presidential palace where he is given the mandate to form a government. He will surely have no prospects of success, but the symbolic effect alone would be grave."