Sieren's China

When Ashraf Ghani (pictured above with Chinese premier Li Keqiang) was sworn in as the new president of Afghanistan last September, one of his first challenges was deciding which country to visit first. Should he demonstrate gratitude to the countries that took part in the US-led mission which ended its combat role last year, or should he prioritize securing the country's future? The world's eyes were on him. In the end, Ghani opted not to head to the US or Europe but chose instead to look ahead, making his first official trip a visit to Beijing.

The last 175 years have seen the British, the Soviets, the Americans and NATO fail in their efforts to bring stability to Afghanistan. Today, it's China's turn.

But for Beijing, the weight of expectation is a heavy burden. China gave Ghani a warm welcome in the form of investment worth around $300 million, but it knows it has to do more than that.

Beijing is also keen to make a friend of Pakistan. Together with Afghanistan and China, the country forms an axis whose center is the main hub of the Taliban – which poses a threat to all three countries equally.

Last week saw representatives from China, Afghanistan and Pakistan meet in Islamabad to discuss boosting joint security efforts in a meeting co-organized by Germany's Konrad Adenauer Foundation. It was the second such meeting, the first having taken place last August. Sun Weidong, the Chinese ambassador to Pakistan, made a point of praising Pakistan's counter-terrorism strategies as well as its progress in talks with Afghanistan.

New Silk Road

But just days after that meeting, four Taliban suicide bombers killed 22 officers when they stormed the dining hall of a police headquarters outside Kabul, bringing a bloody end to a period of relative calm in the city. In neighboring Pakistan, meanwhile, a Taliban suicide attack on a provincial police headquarters killed at least six other people in the eastern city of Lahore.

All in all, the time does not seem ripe for Beijing's plan to involve Afghanistan and Pakistan in its ambitious new Silk Road project, designed to link China and the rest of the world with trade and cultural exchanges.

Only last week, it was reported that Beijing had promised to help build a new 1,500 megawatt dam on the Kunar River in Afghanistan, as well as a new highway and rail connection between Afghanistan and Pakistan, although these could be hampered by Pakistan's displeasure with various cooperations between Afghanistan and India.

Security affecting projects

None of this has gone unnoticed by President Ghani. Even though he visited all of Afghanistan's neighbors last fall, India was not on his itinerary. Moreover, an order of Indian weapons was canceled, while cooperation with the Pakistan military was strengthened.

To Pakistan, this is a gesture of good will. The Chinese registered it with satisfaction, but in practical terms it doesn't get them far. So far, the economic relationship hasn't exactly ignited: Beijing has invested heavily in copper mines, oil and gas pipelines in Afghanistan only to see the projects flounder due to ongoing security tensions in the country.

While all concerned are keen to boost the Kabul-Islamabad-Beijing axis, Afghanistan remains an unreliable partner for China.

Given that military intervention has failed to solve a single one of Afghanistan's problems in recent decades, economic investment is still an option worth pursuing. Beijing isn't giving up yet, not least because of its strategic interests. China has operational control of Gwadar, the deep-sea port built with financial and technical assistance from China on Pakistan's southwest coast, close to the border with Iran. It connects to the Karakoram Highway and is thus a key element in the planned New Silk Road through Eurasia.

Beijing hoped that last week's talks in Islamabad would result in a common strategy against the Taliban. But its partners appear to have greater leverage. Under the circumstances, German business has little interest supporting the Chinese policy with its own investment in Afghanistan.

One of Germany's leading experts on China, our correspondent Frank Sieren has lived in Beijing for 20 years.