Cold War put on ice

Take a quick look at the news and you feel as if you've been transported back to a foregone era. Pictures and headlines these days suggest that Europe is engaged in a new Cold War: The presidents of Poland and the United States pose after Barack Obama's arrival in Warsaw with F-16 fighter jets in the background. The US president awards a Polish solidarity prize to the former leader of Crimea's Tatars, whom Russia is preventing from returning to his home. And defense ministers from NATO countries agree to increase troop numbers on the alliance's eastern border and discuss increasing national military budgets.

In the political arena, the G8 summit - originally set to take place in Sochi, Russia - was cancelled and leaders rescheduled for a two-day meeting in Brussels, without Russian President Vladimir Putin. Last week, the Charlemagne Prize ceremony in Aachen was used to offer a European platform for speeches from the leaders of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova - all highly critical of Russia.

Crimea is lost

All of these measures are intended to send a clear message to one person: Vladimir Putin. The steps represent the more or less unsuccessful attempts to reprimand Russia for its policy toward Ukraine, particularly its illegal annexation of Crimea. But it has long been clear to leaders in the capitals of the G7 countries that Crimea is irrecoverably lost for Ukraine. The goal now is to prevent further Russian aggression against its neighbors.

This is precisely the reason that Western leaders have not taken a strong, confrontational approach. The clearest signal of the week is Putin's position as a welcome guest during the memorial of the 70th anniversary of Allied troops landing in Normandy. French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will use the opportunity for private meetings with the Russian leaders. Russian and US foreign ministers are also set to meet in Paris parallel to the G7. Western leaders are unified in the hope that this series of pinpricks will convince Russia to change its policy.

No one wants a conflict

Western Europe, and Germany in particular, have absolutely no interest in seeing the current conflict worsen. The German economy would suffer nearly as much as Russia's if stricter sanctions were to be put in place. A massive increase in the defense budget would mean cuts to education and social programs. In Germany, that's as unpopular as it gets. The idea of German soldiers fighting to protect Ukraine is absolutely unimaginable. A surprising number of Germans have told pollsters they understand the Russian annexation of Crimea because it clearly represents the wishes of the majority of people living there. Chancellor Merkel's policy of de-escalation is doubtlessly supported by the majority of Germans.

Obama's checkbook diplomacy

Even Obama's gift to Warsaw only seems generous and confrontational on the surface. A billion dollars is a lot of money. But if Poland or the Baltic states were honestly threatened by Russia, there would be no stopping the Russian army from staging additional maneuvers in the Baltics. Massive increases to NATO or US troop levels in Poland are still taboo. Western Europeans continue to refuse such a step, and Obama isn't interested in getting the United States involved in any hot zones, as he made abundantly clear to cadets at the West Point last week.

All of this suits Vladimir Putin just fine. The civil war in Donbas region clearly destabilizes Ukraine. The country's perspectives at joining the European Union have never been less attractive. This all means that Putin has achieved his intermediate goal. And still, a Cold War in Europe remains on ice.