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Failed promises

Grahame LucasSeptember 2, 2014

So far Indian PM Modi has won plaudits for a more assertive style of leadership, but has failed to deliver the substantial changes he promised, writes DW's Grahame Lucas.

https://p.dw.com/p/1D5FW
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi Photo: REUTERS/Adnan Abidi
Image: Reuters

Compared with his predecessor Manmohan Singh, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is clearly out to restore a sense of decisiveness to the Indian government after years of economic stagnation and political gridlock accompanied by the stench of corruption in the highest places.

After 100 days in office Modi has made a better start than his detractors predicted. He has succeeded in jettisoning his image as a divisive, sectarian leader, an image that has dogged him since the religious riots in his home state of Gujarat in 2002 and during the April-May election campaign. He has been helped by the size of the election victory of his Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party. Modi has the strongest political mandate to rule India since the early 1980s. He is unencumbered by the demands of coalition parties and powerful family dynasties like the Gandhis. And he appears to be taking his pledge to be inclusive as a leader seriously.

The PM's speech on Independence Day, delivered in the magnificent setting of Delhi's Red Fort, surprised many. There was none of the powerful, inflammatory Hindu-nationalist rhetoric that many had predicted. Instead, Modi - speaking without notes - was statesmanlike and spoke eloquently about many social problems facing the country. He was forthright and direct to demand a better deal for women in India's traditionally patriarchal society. He also announced his government's plans for bank accounts for all Indians as part of his pledge to modernize Asia's third largest economy and to return it to the path of strong economic growth. His message struck home. The echo in the media was overwhelmingly positive.

Deutsche Welle Grahame Lucas
DW's Grahame LucasImage: DW/P. Henriksen

Modi has also demonstrated that he will not be pushed off course easily. To the surprise of many he blocked a World Trade Organization trade deal involving cuts in food subsidies - a move which caused considerable irritation abroad. This deal clashed with an election pledge to create food security for millions of Indians living below the poverty line. Other popular measures include his declared intention to streamline government bureaucracy and the abolition of the national planning commission, which had previously enjoyed a stranglehold on the country's economy.

His first foreign policy initiatives have also been well received with Modi formulating a vision of a modernized and more powerful India projecting new-found influence throughout Asia. Visits to neighbors Nepal and Bhutan served to underline India's role as a regional kingpin. The Premier has used his visit to Japan to demonstrate his resolve to strengthen the Indian economy by boosting bilateral trade. More significantly still, he has stressed India's willingness to enter into a strategic and defense partnership with Tokyo in the face of Chinese expansionism.

Modi's plans to project a stronger India to the world are on track for the time being with talks with US President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping scheduled for September. Both men will be keen to gauge India's aspirations as partners and rivals respectively in the so-called "Asian century."

But there has also been a setback: Modi's attempt to bring about a thaw in relations with Pakistan ended in acrimony after renewed tensions with Islamabad over disputed Kashmir.

After just three months in the hot seat the fault lines in domestic politics are becoming more discernible. Modi's pledge to clean up the political establishment has been cast into doubt by his decision to appoint a close ally, Amit Shah, to the presidency of his party. Shah is facing murder charges. Dozens of other allies face lesser criminal charges. This has been harshly criticized and is a major disappointment. Moreover, Modi has rewarded politicians associated with the extreme Hindu-nationalist movement led by Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, to which he has belonged since boyhood, with key posts. This has again stoked fears that Modi may still harbor ambitions to transform India into a Hindu nation.

There have been other setbacks too. Modi has not yet succeeded in tabling legislation to address the country's problems. His first budget had so much in common with the plans of the outgoing Congress-led government that it was a considerable disappointment. While business confidence has increased markedly, food inflation remains high. A poor monsoon has created a serious situation in rural areas where two-thirds of the population depend on agriculture for a living. But while there is some public concern about these issues, the government has said next to nothing.

Narendra Modi und Shinzo Abe 01.09.2014 in Tokio
The PM's foreign policy initiatives have been well receivedImage: Reuters

That is no coincidence and says much about Modi's style of leadership. "Laborer number one" as the prime minister describes himself acted swiftly to secure his own power after the election by ruthlessly pushing the two most senior BJP leaders aside. The maintenance of government unity is a maxim to be obeyed at all costs. Modi, whose effective social media campaign in the run-up to the election contributed substantially to his victory, understands the dangers the media pose to his authority. As a consequence he has muzzled his ministers by banning them from speaking to the media or tweeting about government business without his consent. Pictures of the prime minister have also emerged chairing cabinet meetings from a seat looking sternly down at his ministers. The message is clear. "I, Modi, decide." This certainly represents a departure from past practice. A concentration of power of this kind in the hands of one person is a potentially dangerous path for a democracy to tread.

For the time being, Indians appear willing to give strongman Modi the benefit of the doubt. That is reflected in polls which show that between 61 and 70 percent of the electorate believe Modi's performance to be either good or excellent. However, if Modi fails to deliver on his election pledges, the public verdict would be damning and the mood could change quickly. In this regard the jury is still out.