Renewed unrest

When the Egyptians managed to overthrow the regime of Hosni Mubarak through peaceful mass protests back in February, a wave of sympathy spread through Europe. Young Egyptians were demonstrating for freedom, democracy and justice - for "our" values. They were demanding the creation of a civil society.

Relieved, we Europeans noted that neither Israeli nor American flags were being burnt on the streets. As we saw the young people coordinating their protest action using "Western" communication methods like Facebook, we got the feeling that the Egyptians were just like us. They were simply repeating what central and eastern Europeans had achieved two decades earlier when their peaceful protests brought about the fall of the Communist rulers.

But the Egyptians are not like us Europeans. Some 20 percent live below the poverty line, around 40 percent have never properly learned to read or write. Half of young people aged 20 to 24 are out of work.

For decades, spiraling population growth has meant the proportion of young people is increasing - and with it the potential for dissatisfaction and unrest, which has been stirred up by rising food prices.

Mubarak's fall earlier this year has done little to alter the situation. Compared with Egypt, even Greek citizens are living in relatively stable economic times.

Religion: the great divider

Egypt differs from Europe in other ways, too: surveys show that the majority of Egyptians favor the idea of religion playing an even greater role in the social order. Many also support the revision of the peace treaty with their largely detested neighbor, Israel.

Both could become official state and government policy, if, as is widely expected, the Muslim Brotherhood and radical Islamist groups emerge as victors in elections due to begin on November 28. But those policies would not be in the interests of Europe.

There is one authority that could prevent too strong an "Islamization" of domestic and foreign policy in Egypt: the current transition military government, which is trying a number of tricks to retain power beyond the elections. The governing Supreme Council of the Armed Forces wants to secure the inviolability of its network of economic interests, and sees itself as the guarantor of Egypt's stability and credibility.

From a Western perspective, that could be attractive. But a word of caution - this would be the same pseudo-stability presented by Mubarak's regime, and is just as likely to fail.

Renewed protests

The fact that a council of unelected military leaders wants to have the biggest say in drawing up a new constitution and does not want to answer to democratic control is understandably unacceptable to many Egyptians. That's why many have again taken to the streets in recent days in Cairo, Alexandria and other towns.

And security forces have again been unable to avoid the escalating the problem, resorting to violence. The atmosphere has become charged, and Egyptians are faced with uncertain times ahead.

At heart, this is about whether the country will be allowed to become a true democracy - or whether the military will retain its power. Europe has to take a clear stand and support the right of the Egyptian people to political self-determination - even when the majority are likely to vote for parties that we don't support. At the same time, the Europeans must prepare themselves for new challenges ahead, and new risks.

European foreign policymakers need a new concept for dealing with what may be new Islamist governments in the region: according to what criteria should we describe them as "radical" or "moderate"? How far is dialogue possible? What powers of influence does Europe have? Important questions, which remain unanswered, a week before the start of seminal Egyptian elections.

Author: Rainer Sollich / ji
Editor: Martin Kuebler