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Scottish independence support slips

September 12, 2014

New opinion polls have given the "no" side a slight edge ahead of Scotland's referendum on independence. If the "yes" side wins, it will eventually see Scotland leave its more than 300-year-old union with England.

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Symbolbild Referendum Unabhängigkeit Schottland
Image: Andy Buchanan/AFP/Getty Images

A poll published by London's Times newspaper on Friday showed that support for the "no" camp had climbed to 52 percent, with 48 percent of those polled saying they intended to vote in favor of independence.

The survey of 1,268 adults was conducted by the YouGov internet market research firm between Tuesday and Thursday.

The company's last survey, published on Sunday, had put the pro-independence side ahead for the first time with 51 percent support, compared to 49 percent for union supporters.

The president of YouGov, Peter Kellner, told the Times that the latest poll marked the first time the "no" side had gained ground since early in August. He attributed the pro-unionists' change in fortunes in part to campaigning by Scottish former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

"Since Brown entered the debate, the 'yes' bandwagon, which had been rolling so dramatically, has stalled. His warnings that independence would be bad for jobs and family finances have struck home," he said.

Kellner added that Scotland's first minister and leader of the Scottish National Party, Alex Salmond, had much work to do over the next few days if he is to reverse this trend.

"If Salmond is to get his campaign back on track, he must, once more, reassure his fellow Scots that independence will not threaten their jobs and living standards," Kellner said.

ICM figures differ only slightly

Also on Friday, a survey conducted by the pollsters ICM Research also found that the "no" side was ahead among decided voters, putting support for staying in the union at 51 percent compared to 49 percent for independence. It also put the number of undecided voters at 17 percent.

Friday's polls came a day after two Scottish banks said they would move their headquarters to London if Scots voted in favor of independence in the September 18 referendum.

However, both Lloyds and the Royal Bank of Scotland said the potential moves were legal procedures that would not impact their operations or Scotland-based jobs.

If Scottish voters do choose independence, the vote would be followed by more than a year of negotiations on the terms of its exit from the United Kingdom, which would occur in early 2016, 309 years after Scotland joined England in the union.

pfd/kms (AFP, Reuters, dpa)