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UK election polls indicating big party tie

April 26, 2015

The latest opinion polls indicate Conservatives and Labour separated only by a few percentage points. More than a third of voters have turned away from the big two parties.

https://p.dw.com/p/1FEzL
David Cameron
Image: Reuters/T. Melville

The latest opinion polls show more than a third of voters turning away from the two big parties, Conservative and Labour, in favor of the UK Independence Party (UK), the Liberal Democrats and Greens.

The trend has intensified since 2010 when both the Conservatives and opposition Labour failed to secure an outright majority in the 650-seat parliament for the first time since World War Two .

The Survation poll of 1,004 people carried out on April 24 and 25 for the Conservative-party-supporting Mail on Sunday gave Cameron's party a 3 percentage point lead over Labour. The Conservative share of the vote had increased to 33 percent with Labour's down 4 percent to 30 percent according to the poll.

The Survation poll showed UKIP taking an increasing share of the vote from people who had voted Labour at the last elections in 2010:

A YouGov poll for News Corp's Sunday Times gave the Labour Party a two-percentage point lead over the Conservatives. The poll showed Labour on 34 percent and the Conservatives on 32 percent, according to the paper.

An earlier poll for the center-left Observer newspaper, part of The Guardian Media Group, showed the Conservatives had just a one percentage point lead over Labour.

The poll by market research company Opinium put the Conservatives on 34 percent, with support for Labour at 33 percent. An Opinium poll put the Conservative lead at 4 points last week.

Support for the anti-European Union UKIP was 13 percent, and 9 percent for the Liberal Democrats, the junior partner in the coalition. The Greens' share was 6 percent.

While only people in Scotland can cast their vote for the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP), polls are giving them the overwhelming share of the vote north of the border which could lead to their taking 50 seats in the next parliament in London.

Soccer confusion

The talking point of the campaign on Saturday was Cameron's inability to remember which football team he supported. The prime minister had previously said he supported Aston Villa, after watching the team beat Bayern Munich in the European Cup final in 1982. At the time his uncle William Dugdale was chairman of the English club.

But in a speech in south London, Cameron said he supported West Ham - who play in similar colors to Aston Villa.

Cameron blamed his mistake on a "brain fade" and later told TV broadcaster Sky News that "by the time you have made as many speeches as I have on this campaign, all sorts of funny things start popping out of your mouth."

With less than two weeks to go to the May 7 election, party presentations have come under the spotlight. The Independent online showed "18 general election leaflets that make you fear for democracy" with the leaflet by UKIP's candidate for Hull North taking 18th place for being "just plain weird:"

jm/bk (Reuters, AP)