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'Islamic State' presents indirect threat to Iran

Interview: Kersten KnippDecember 3, 2014

Tehran realizes that both the "Islamic State" and the Western-led campaign against it pose threats to Iranian interests in Iraq and Syria, Ellie Geranmayeh of the European Council on Foreign Relations tells DW.

https://p.dw.com/p/1Dysg
Kämpfer Schiitische Miliz mit IS Flagge an der Front in Jalawla 23.11.2014
Image: Reuters

DW: Iran has denied to have started strikes against the "Islamic State," also known by the Arabic acronym Daesh. What do you know about the current situation?

Ellie Geranmayeh: As it stands, Iran has neither denied nor confirmed that it has carried out the recently alleged airstrikes. But at the start of the assault in June, Iran transported aircraft to Iraq that had been claimed from Iraq in 1991. There is clearly some airspace activity that Iran has been involved in, whether directly or by backing the Iraqi army. It does not come as a surprise that Iran has stepped up its military efforts in Iraq by joining the airstrike campaign - and of course when I say "joining" I don't mean the US-led coalition campaign but joining the efforts that are being coordinated by the Iraqi central government. I would be hesitant to bet that Iran will confirm these reports any time soon. But the fact that the Pentagon has decided this is the moment to release this information is itself indicative that things are indeed happening on the US-Iran front and how airspace control is being coordinated.

What is Iran's position towards the Islamic State? What are Iran's goals?

Iran's objective towards Daesh are broadly threefold. First, to contain Daesh and eventually defeat them in the territories they have captured in Iraq and Syria.

Second, to maintain the territorial integrity of both Iraq and Syria - in addition to Lebanon - when it comes to the expansionist vision of Daesh.

Third, and perhaps the most important underlying reasons for Iran's military pushback against Daesh is its realization that not only Daesh but also the Western-led campaign against it can undermine Iranian interests in both Iraq and Syria by undercutting access routes to Hezbollah. Tehran seeks to avoid this.

Do you think IS is a direct threat to Iranian territory?

Daesh presents a largely indirect and external threat to Iran. Most of Iran's neighboring countries, whether it is the Gulf states, Turkey, Iraq and Syria, all face a direct border security issue when it comes to Daesh. Iran is facing a different scenario. Iran has not until now experienced a meaningful Daesh insurgency from within. But to caveat this analysis, there is a Sunni-inspired group called Jaish al-adl in Pakistan on the border with Iran that has stepped up military attacks on Iranian security personnel over the last two months. One issue for Iran is how far such terrorist groups will go in aligning themselves with Daesh as we have seen with extremist groups in Egypt's Sinai and Libya's Darna.

Ellie Geranmayeh
Geranmayeh joined the ECFR in 2013Image: Privat

Another direct security issue for Tehran is that a number of individuals have been caught crossing either the Afghan or Pakistan border with the aim of joining Daesh in Iraq. Iranian security forces have managed to catch these individuals through surveillance and prevent Iran from being used as a passage channel for people to get to Daesh. These security threats have so far been manageable. Certainly in comparison to surrounding states that face a radicalization of their Sunni population, Iran hasn't faced that to the same degree. There is currently a low risk that Iran's Sunni groups will sympathize with ideologies propagated by Daesh.

Why is the Assad regime in Syria so important for Iran?

Iran has persistently claimed that its allegiance with the Syrian regime is non-sectarian. The Alawites are a secular regime structure in Syria. Iran also points out that it supported the Karzai government in Afghanistan (a Sunni leader) and that its foreign policy is not directed through a sectarian lens. Iran and Syria have a security framework agreement dating back to 2006. Syria was the only Arab state during the Iran-Iraq war that opposed Saddam Hussein. Iran has very much held on to that history.

A more important issue for Iran is to ensure Syria's territorial integrity, mainly because Syria offers direct access routes to Hezbollah in Lebanon; Iran is very keen to keep this access for the foreseeable future. The activity and the prolonged level of support and assistance Iran has showed Assad is not only because of its link to Damascus that goes back historically, but also to secure national interests for the Iran regime in the long term.

Is Syria a proxy ground for a conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran?

There is no doubt that both Iran and Saudi Arabia have been heavily involved in prolonging the conflict in Syria. Before a long term solution can be worked out in Syria, Iran and Saudi Arabia need to come to a settlement over their differences - not only on Syria but on the wider regional background. We also see wider regional disturbances between the two countries, for example in Yemen, which seem to be evolving into another elusive battleground between the two countries.

Ellie Geranmayeh is a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations where she specializes in Iran's foreign policy, Iran's domestic politics, EU-Iran relations, sanctions and public international law.