DSK comeback?

The attempted rape case against Dominique Strauss-Kahn from earlier this year appears to be weakening, with doubts cast over the credibility of the Guinean hotel maid who accused him.

But the French writer and journalist, Tristane Banon, who has said before that Strauss-Kahn sexually assaulted her in 2002, announced via her lawyer on Monday that she would press separate charges against him in Paris on Tuesday.

Nevertheless, Strauss-Kahn's apparently improved position trumped the Monaco Royal wedding and the start of the Tour de France as a French news story and as a dinner-table talking point over the weekend.

Before his sudden arrest in New York on May 14, 2011, polls suggested Strauss-Kahn would beat President Nicolas Sarkozy in next year's election, making him the most popular of all the possible Socialist candidates. Five Socialist politicians have since thrown their hats in the presidential ring, but party leaders don't want to exclude their former golden boy from the race.

"If there's one lesson we've learned from this affair, it is not to speak before all the facts are known," the new Socialist party leader Harlem Desir said on Monday. Desir took over the role from Martine Aubry last week, after the veteran had to step down in order to launch her own bid for the Socialist presidential nomination. Aubry has also said on national television that no one would stand in Strauss-Kahn's way if he decided to return.

'Damaged goods'

Images of Strauss-Kahn's release from house arrest, in sharp contrast to footage of him in custody in New York in May, helped revive the possibility of a political comeback, even if this prospect has again been shaken by news of Tristane Banon's prosecution plans.

"It's the big question, it's a big test of how France has changed these days," veteran French political correspondent for the Times of London newspaper, Charles Bremner, told Deutsche Welle. "In the old days, you could probably get away with anything behind the bedroom door and still be elected president."

Bremner said that there are those in France who will rally round Strauss-Kahn, perhaps seeing him as a victim of the US media and justice systems, or even as the victim of some kind of frame-up orchestrated by his political opponents. One Socialist politician even suggested that the French Sofitel hotel chain where Strauss-Kahn's alleged misdemeanor took place and allies of Nicolas Sarkozy might have been in cahoots in a plot to sully the Socialist's name. Sarkozy's UMP party has dismissed these claims as "scandalous."

"Dominique Strauss-Kahn is very much damaged goods - at least at the moment. He's also been subjected to great ridicule in France, and one of the worst things that can happen to you in the history of France is to be the subject of ridicule; it used to get you banished from the royal court," Bremner said.

Comme ci, comme ca

Recent polls suggest that French people are pretty evenly split on the prospect of a Strauss-Kahn comeback, and married couple Patrick and Ann Marie Sol appeared to support this data, as they lounged on the grass in a Nice public park on the Mediterranean coast.

For husband Patrick Sol, the sudden change in Strauss-Kahn's fortunes is difficult to believe.

"I think they came to some sort of arrangement between the two sides," he said. "Money must have changed hands. When Strauss-Kahn appeared in court accused, he looked bad. He didn't have the face of someone who was innocent. I think there's something fishy going on."

Nevertheless, Patrick and his wife are both adamant that this scandal will not necessarily prevent the Socialist frontrunner and former IMF boss from launching a swift comeback.

"Oh, he can come back, no problem," Anne Marie said emphatically. "French politicians are good at remaking themselves after run-ins with the law. It certainly wouldn't be the first time it's happened."

For now, Socialist party spokesman Benoit Hamon's advice at a Monday news conference appears most prudent: "Let's leave Dominique Strauss-Kahn some breathing space and let him speak once he is ready." Hamon also said, however, that he personally thought an April 2012 run at the presidency was "the weakest" of all possible comeback scenarios.

Sunday paper Le Journal de Dimanche may have jumped the gun with their headline "The incredible comeback of Dominique Strauss-Kahn," but by how much?

Author: Eleanor Beardsley, Nice / msh
Editor: Michael Lawton