EU musical chairs
Five European leadership positions are up for grabs this summer. Behind the scenes the candidates have been jockeying for position for months, and now the race is starting to heat up. Who will be who in Europe in 2014?
Round we go
The jobs to be assigned this year are: president of the EU Commission, president of the European Council, president of the European Parliament, EU Foreign Minister, and NATO General Secretary. The appointments will be decided after the European elections at the end of May, with the parliament having considerable influence over who is chosen.
At the top
Martin Schulz (r.) wants to be head of the powerful EU executive. The German Social Democrat is currently president of the European Parliament, and is the first candidate to throw his hat into the ring for the presidency of the European Commission. The position has been held for the past 10 years by the centre-right Portuguese politician Jose Manuel Barroso (l.)
Good friends?
Martin Schulz has an influential supporter in French president Francois Hollande (r.). Both belong to the same socialist political group; Schulz also speaks fluent French. But German Chancellor Angela Merkel (l.) is the kingmaker here, and she leads the conservative bloc among the heads of state and government.
Hands-on administration
The former prime minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker (r.), was recently voted out after 19 years in office. The confident, sharp-tongued former head of the European finance ministers is keen to be president of the European Commission, but Angela Merkel is rumored to be opposed. Spain's Economy Minister de Guindos (c.) is one who has fallen "victim" to Juncker's playful aggression.
Favored candidate
The Polish premier Donald Tusk (r.) is rumored to be Chancellor Merkel's favorite to lead the EU Commission. Tusk, however, is said to be reluctant, despite their friendly greeting at the opening of the CeBit computer trade fair in Hanover in 2013. The allocation of the positions has to reflect a balance between big and small, old and new EU member states.
Recovery team
The Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny (l.) is another possible candidate for head of the European Commission who's more to Merkel's taste. Like her, he heads a red-black coalition. Ireland, a small country, would work well within the proportional formula. Kenny has successfully led Ireland out of virtual bankruptcy by sticking to the path of austerity prescribed by the Euro bailout.
End of a career
Herman Van Rompuy (r.) is stepping down after five years as the first full-time president of the European Council. The Belgian politican was considered to be a good mediator, but rather colorless. Possible successors include the Danish Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt (m.) Here too Angela Merkel's vote is decisive. The future president needs the EU's largest state on his - or her - side.
The Lady's had enough
Lady Catherine Ashton won't be running again. The British politician finds her job as EU Foreign Minister and Vice-President of the EU Commission too exhausting. In November 2014 she will make way for someone else. At present she has no obvious possible successors, but Martin Schulz may get the post if he misses out elsewhere.
Putting on the brakes
Günther Oettinger, a German conservative, is keen to stay on as Commissioner for Energy, but his chances are looking slim. The black-red coalition in Berlin will only officially decide in May who will be Germany's EU Commissioner, but rumor has it Oettinger will have to go. Here, too, Martin Schulz is a possible choice, if he doesn't become Commission President or Foreign Minister.
Still in the running
NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen (l.) is keen to transfer to a civilian job, preferably as President of the EU Commission. He's unlikely to get this, but he would be prepared to take on another leading European position instead. US President Obama (r.) is also involved in deciding who heads the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.
New face for NATO?
Belgian Defense Minister Pieter de Crem stands a good chance of becoming the new NATO Secretary-General. Coming from a small EU country, he fits the Alliance's proportionality criteria, and could be a good choice from the US point of view. Turkish president Abdullah Gül is also being mentioned as a possibility. Unusually, Martin Schulz is not a candidate.
Saying goodbye
The former Portuguese prime minister Jose Manuel Barroso has been at the helm of the EU Commission for 10 years. The conservative European bloc's candidate, he got the post after Angela Merkel, at the time the leader of the German opposition, pulled every string to get him appointed instead of a social democrat. Barroso, 57, has no intention of retiring just yet.
Comeback on the world stage?
Barroso allegedly has his eye on the post of UN Secretary-General, which is held by the South Korean Ban Ki-moon until the end of 2016. There is, however, also speculation within NATO that Barroso may be appointed to head the alliance: He's known to be a good friend of the United States.
Musical chairs, EU-style
Chasing after positions in Brussels is a bit like the popular children's party game "musical chairs" - there are more candidates than seats to accommodate them. In the end, it's the skillful tacticians who win. Surprise candidacies can be expected, and speculation is rife. The decision will be made at the EU summit at the end of June and, at the latest, at the NATO summit in early September.