Reform Anger Could Turn Violent

During a recent trip by Chancellor Gerhard Schröder to the eastern town of Wittenberge, his bodyguards had to suddenly scramble to protect the German leader from eggs thrown at him by demonstrators protesting his welfare reforms. "We want jobs," angry protestors yelled as the projectiles flew.

At a job center in Berlin this week, an enraged man who felt benefits were being unfairly withheld from him, attacked a secretary with a knife, wounding her in the arm before colleagues could restrain him.

While these and other similar events might be individual, even exceptional incidents, some experts say they are consequences of a population on the edge, upset at what is seen by many as the abandonment of long-held principles of social fairness and frightened of a possible future in poverty.

Aggressive and violent behavior, experts say, could increase as welfare benefits are cut and people feel they have no other way to express their opposition and anger.

"Right now they are individual incidents, but they are likely only the beginning," Paul Saatkamp, head of the Lower Rhine chapter of the AWO social welfare organization, told DW-WORLD. "In January, when one million people lose their benefits, then it could really take off."

High social tension

The labor market and welfare changes being introduced by Schröder's government, named Hartz IV after their author, Volkswagen's personnel chief Peter Hartz (photo), are the biggest social reforms in Germany's post-war history.

The government says they are necessary to revive the country's struggling economy and save a social system threatened with collapse due to high unemployment and an aging population. Long-term unemployment benefits are to be reduced to the level of social welfare payments, meaning a large cut in income for many families.

The changes have brought thousands of Germans out to the streets for so-called "Monday demonstrations" over the past three weeks, primarily in eastern Germany, where the economy is weakest and unemployment is highest.

The chairman of Germany's police union, Konrad Freiberg, expressed fears that the social tension caused by the reforms and protests could lead to an upsurge in violence, especially against employees of job centers and welfare offices.

"In general we're seeing more violence in our society and the police are being called out more and more," he told the Express newspaper in Cologne. "They're especially called to welfare offices because employees there are increasingly being threatened and insulted, or violence is being used."

Rising tide

Violence in welfare and job centers has been on the increase over the several years, as the unemployed vent their frustration at being unable to find work or seeing the benefits reduced.

"We're had this problem for several years," Kerstin Bauer of Berlin's Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg welfare office told DW-WORLD. "Personally I worry about an upturn in the violence because of the heated discussion going on now about the reforms. Some people seem to think violence is a legitimate means to express their dissatisfaction."

In the state of Thuringia, the job center in the town of Nordhauser has hired five private security guards to make rounds and quell potential trouble. In the district of Neukölln in Berlin, five youths recently took their frustrations out on a desk officer, beating him severely.

"I anticipate that these kind of excesses are just going to increase because of Hartz IV," Achim Berger, deputy head of the center's workers' council, told the Berliner Zeitung newspaper.

The Federal Labor Office, located in Nuremberg, is watching the developments in the debate over Hartz IV closely and trying to prepare in case the fallout becomes more serious, according to spokeswoman Ilone Mierschen.

"Our security plans have been reviewed or are being reviewed so that if we do see an increase in violent incidents, we will be ready for them," she told DW-WORLD.

Irritated, but mostly calm

However, she and some others insist it is too early to talk about the reforms sparking a general trend toward more violent behavior.

"I think the violent incidents we have seen recently are exceptions," Dr. Jürgen Mittag, a social researcher at the University of Bochum, told DW-WORLD. "It's true that some tempers are at a all-time high, but we shouldn't engage in generalizations about the whole of society."

He agrees that the uncertainty among many about their future has led to unusual levels of frustration, anger and feelings of powerlessness, but does not see it spiralling out of control. That is a barrier, he said, that will not likely be crossed.

New intensity, new forms?

However, that could depend on the future direction of the protest movement, which is still going strong. Much hangs on the nature of the demonstrations, whether they remain unified or are split among different factions. The role of the unions and their calls to action will also determine how the protests develop.

Peter Grottian, a political scientist at Berlin's Free University, said the population's anger could increase as politicians refuse to soften any more of the reform's harder edges.

"The level of aggression is very high right now and it's likely to get worse with time," he told DW-WORLD. He said that does not expressly mean more violence, but protests could take a turn.

"I think the traditional protest forms are going to expand and we're going to see more civil disobedience actions," he said.