Bonn conference

Just days before the Afghanistan conference in Bonn is supposed to begin, the latest spat between the US and Pakistan has turned into a diplomatic bombshell. If Islamabad boycotts the international conference about Afghanistan's future, as it is now threatening to do, one of the most important regional actors will be missing. What is certain is that without Pakistan at the negotiating table in Bonn the conference outcome is likely to be largely irrelevant.

Pakistan has justified its move by stating its sovereignty was violated by the recent NATO attack that killed 24 Pakistani troops. The background to the attack on Pakistani territory remains hazy. But religious extremists have been out in numbers in many big Pakistani cities.

The government in Islamabad reacted quickly, barring NATO convoys from using road links from Karachi to Afghanistan to transport supplies to the international troops there. Moreover, the US is no longer allowed to use an air base in Baluchistan that is thought to have been used to launch drone attacks in the tribal border region.

In the past, such measures have been imposed after bilateral spats and quietly lifted later on so as not to jeopardize relations with Washington. However, this time the situation is being allowed to escalate. The stakes in play at the Bonn conference are very high for Pakistan.

Islamabad wants to secure its influence in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of Western troops in 2014, and particularly wants to control the border region that could be used for a strategic military retreat in case of another war with India. Moreover, Pakistan wants to prevent New Delhi from developing its already good relations with Kabul and surrounding Pakistan in diplomatic terms - this is the worst imaginable nightmare for politicians in Islamabad. For this reason they are using the Taliban to promote their own interests, as a kind of trump card so long as they think their position might not be taken seriously at the peace conference.

In this highly-explosive context, the Afghanistan conference offers Islamabad a unique opportunity to up the ante on the poker table of international diplomacy. With Pakistan staying away the West will be shown that there can be no longstanding peace in Afghanistan without Pakistan. The message is clear - the Pakistani secret services can bring the Taliban to the peace table, or not.

Now, the US and European diplomats have to get to work. Pakistan has to be persuaded that its legitimate interests are being taken into account. No more than that. The nuclear power will be a tough negotiating partner but it cannot be interested in a complete break with the West. After all, Pakistan depends on long-term US military and financial aid, as well as reconstruction support from the EU.

Author: Grahame Lucas / act
Editor: Arun Chowdhury