Triumph for Assad?

Syria's state-controlled media are hailing "liberation" of the city of Homs from the "terrorists." Several days ago, Tourism Minister Bisher Yazigi stated in all seriousness that he was looking forward to a "flourishing tourism season" in the bombed-out metropolis.

Pullout of the last remaining rebel units from Syria's third-largest city offers yet another opportunity for the regime in Damascus to celebrate its military supremacy and portray itself as the winner.

A United Nations-brokered deal had made the pullout possible in the first place. Iranian negotiators are said to have played a key role in that deal, under which the regime and its allied militia are allowing the rebels pull out while retaining their lighter weapons.

As a countermove, the rebels are to ease blockades in two Shiite villages, as well as release several prisoners - allegedly Iranian militiamen - and combatants of the Shiite Lebanese militia Hezbollah. Both groups had been fighting side-by-side with the regime against the rebels, who are mainly Sunnites equally supported by foreign militiamen in their ranks, among them many jihadists close to al-Qaeda.

Foreseeable defeat

That the historic district of Homs would return to the hands of the regime following a two-year siege and permanent bombardment does not come as a surprise. A few years ago, rebels had brought an estimated 70 percent of the city and its surroundings under their control. But since 2012, the regime has been recapturing one area after another. The rebels - entrenched in the old town and Al Waer district - ran out of munitions, food and medical supplies. The civilian population suffered terribly from the under the bombardments.

The fact that the rebels were at least allowed to take with them some portion of their weapons - enabling them to continue their fight elsewhere in the country - has been interpreted by some regime opponents as a partial success. Most observers, however, view the pullout as a bitter defeat for the rebels.

Homs more than any other city had been a symbol of resistance against the regime of President Bashar al-Assad: That's where hundreds of thousands had demonstrated against Assad's dictatorship at the beginning of the initially unarmed uprising in 2011.

By now, after pullout from the old town, Al Waer is the only district to remain under the control of regime opponents. Speculation is rife that there, as well, the rebels will be soon forced to leave.

The war continues

At least in the ongoing propaganda war, Bashar al-Assad is now celebrating a victory: He can claim to have "liberated" the war-ridden city without further bloodshed. Also in Homs, he may now be able to hold pseudo-democratic Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to run for third term in officepresidential elections, which are due on June 3.

And he continues under the likelihood that Western countries will shy away from direct military intervention in Syria. Deep concern over the situation in Ukraine is distracting the United States and Europe from increasing dominance of radical Islamist militias within the ranks of Assad's opponents. Western players are keen to avoid yet another confrontation with Russia. Moscow, next to Tehran, is Assad's most important political ally and arms supplier.

Homs lies on the corridor ranging from Syria's capital Damascus all the way to Assad's home region on the Mediterranean coastline - in that sense, the specific location of Homs adds to Assad's strategic victory.

But all that does not mean that Assad has won the war in the long run. The continuous military and financial support of rebels by Persian Gulf states, as well as the West, has so far prevented their final defeat. Yet that support isn't enough for a victory over Assad's troops, either - so for the time being, fighting will go on.