Fortuyn Lives on in Dutch Politics
January 22, 2003
Just eight months since the last parliamentary elections the Dutch are going to the polls to vote for a new government. The campaigns have shown that nearly all the parties fielding candidates have learned lessons from Pim Fortuyn (photo, below), the rising comet of Dutch politics during the last elections who was assassinated by an animal rights activist just a week before the vote in May 2002. The run up to the election has been dominated by the issues the populist Fortuyn focused on: immigration, integration and crime.
Singing a different song
Even the Labor Party (PvdA), which suffered its worst election defeat since World War II last May, has changed its tone under the leadership of its new and charismatic leader, 39-year-old Wouter Bos. The PvdA is now calling for stricter immigration regulations and strengthening the fight against crime, an about-turn according to Dutch political commentators.
It appears that Bos' strategy will pay off on Wednesday. Pollsters predict that the Labor Party will regain around 13 of the 22 mandates it lost last time around, going from 23 to 40 or 41 seats in the 150-seat Dutch parliament, culling them from Pim Fortuyn's party (LPF).
Populism appeals
Bos is not alone in catering to populist sentiments. Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende's Christian Democrats (CDA) and the Liberal Party (VVD), one of the CDA's governing coalition partners, have even tried to undermine Dutch taboos, saying, for example, that the Dutch should be forced to carry personal identification at all times and that minors too should be subjected to strip searches when suspected of crimes.
The CDA is expected to poll the same or slightly more than Labor, while the VVD is pegged to receive 27 or 28 mandates. That won't be enough to allow the CDA and VVD to rule with a clear majority -- a total of ten parties currently sit in the Dutch parliament. A CDA-PvdA coalition could be the outcome.
In the meantime, Fortuyn's LPF, which went from zero to 26 mandates last election and became the second strongest parliamentary power, is expected to practically disappear with a meager six parliamentary seats.
Volatile Dutch voting habits
Dutch pollsters, however, aren't banking on their prognoses, since one-quarter of Dutch voters still haven't decided how to cast their votes.
After 87 days in office, Prime Minister Balkenende dissolved the previous government in October, an unstable coalition of the Christian Democrats, the Liberal Party and Fortuyn's party, following the resignation of two LPF ministers over an internal party dispute.