Six-party talks

The United States diverts its attentions away from Iran this week to address one of its other pressing nuclear issues, that of North Korea and the continued failure of international talks with the secretive communist state.

President Barack Obama's special envoy Stephen Bosworth will spend three days in the North Korean capital from Tuesday discussing how best to bring North Korea back to the nuclear negotiating table, and how to get the regime to recommit to denuclearization.

Bosworth, the first envoy sent by Obama to the North, is expected to meet with top North Korean officials but not leader Kim Jong-il. Despite not holding direct talks with Kim, Bosworth will present the North Korean delegation with a tentative road map for ending the country's nuclear arms plans which the US has been working on with Japan and South Korea.

While this road map is expected to provide incentives for the impoverished nation in return for the cessation of its nuclear weapons program, most experts say that North Korea will remain guarded against reopening six-party talks. Nevertheless, Bosworth will continue to press for a pledge from Pyongyang that it will return to disarmament-for-aid talks and hope that the Obama’s administration's approach bears more fruit than its predecessor's.

However, Professor Eberhard Sandschneider, an expert on China, Southeast Asia and the US at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), believes that the situation between the two nations has not changed enough to force a breakthrough.

US moves towards dialogue

"Relations are not that dissimilar to those during the Bush administration," Sandschneider told Deutsche Welle. "There have been obstructive noises coming from North Korea and more cooperative ones coming from Washington but it remains to be seen if things will change. The North Koreans are pushing for direct negotiations with the US while the six-party talks are, at best, in a stalemate position. But one should not expect too much from this one visit to Pyongyang."

"Bosworth's visit is a real sign from Obama that he wants to pursue dialogue but only within the six-party structure," according to Dr. Markus Titden, senior researcher with the Asia Research Group at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). "North Korea is an important link with all of Obama's Asian alliances so he wants to involve these regional powers in these negotiations."

North Korea is unlikely to budge if the US - joined in the six-party negotiation process by China, Japan, Russia and South Korea - presses on with its demands; the removal of North Korea's nuclear facilities, the disposal of its nuclear weapons and material, and the verification of its nuclear program in return for food and development aid. The advancement of Pyongyang's nuclear program is more than just a strategic military decision.

Read more about North Korea's nuclear strategy

North Korea's bargaining chip

"North Korea's nuclear program is part of its national identity and is its only real leverage for international influence," Sandschneider said. "Building up military power based on a nuclear capability is the only means for North Korea to get noticed and addressed in the international community."

Titden agrees: "North Korea is more rational than most people think. They know that if they lash out at their neighbors it will be the last thing they do. But even if they don't intend to use their weapons, they won't give them up. It is their only trump card."

With North Korea unwilling to give up on its one big bargaining chip, most experts foresee more stalling and frustration ahead for the Americans and their negotiating partners.

"It is very hard to say whether the North Koreans will return to the negotiating table," Sandschneider said. "It all depends on what's offered, how negotiations develop and of course whenever the North Koreans get offered something, they immediately want more and then they return to a particularly hard stance so it's very difficult to say.

"North Korea wants security assurances from the US, the only country active in Asia which can actually give them what they want," said Titden. "They want a no-attack assurance and a treaty which will guarantee that they are left alone. They want energy security, food aid, technical help for the agricultural sector and financial support to keep the country running. But they won't allow people in to monitor how aid is dispersed so there again is another impasse."

Military first policy contributing to poverty

The state of the North's broken economy, exacerbated by fresh UN sanctions imposed as a result of its most recent nuclear test in May, coupled with US Treasury action targeting the communist state's finances, have increased the pressure on Pyongyang.

While not as isolated and poor as many think it to be - North Korea has diplomatic and commercial relations with more than 150 countries, including many in Europe, and has considerable gold deposits squirreled away around the globe - the country’s 'military-first' policy of siphoning off the majority of its income into its armed forces has left the populace malnourished and dependent on international food aid.

Despite also making money from its notorious proliferation activities, North Korea is still in need of a fluid economy and relies heavily on the global community to feed its people. As a result, Bosworth may in fact be arriving in Pyongyang with the upper hand.

Future hinges on Pyongyang's whim

But the nature of dealing with North Korea makes reaching any compromise extremely difficult, regardless on whether the US holds a position of power in the relations or not. Giving North Korea what it wants and receiving assurances and positive action in return depends on many factors which could change on Pyongyang's whim.

"What ultimately happens after any future talks really depends on how much pressure China puts on North Korea and whether there will be a realization in Pyongyang that only by cooperating with the international community will it get the long-term security it craves," Sandschneider concluded. "All this, however, depends on what view is currently held in Pyongyang and what view ultimately prevails."

Author: Nick Amies

Editor: Rob Mudge