Reforms in danger

Concerns are rising in Egypt over the ruling military council's response to the raid by a violent mob on the Israeli embassy in Cairo which led to Egyptian commandos storming the building to free trapped staffers and Israeli military helicopters airlifting the ambassador and more than 80 diplomats to safety.

Pro-reformists in Egypt fear that the assault on the embassy under the noses of the Egyptian security forces will strengthen the hand of Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, Egypt's de facto head of state, and his Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF). Many are afraid that a crackdown on those responsible could effectively see Egypt return to the social and political repression of the Mubarak regime, which was overthrown by a popular revolt after 30 years of power in February.

Egypt's military rulers have already stated that they intend to widen reactivated emergency laws, key planks of the Mubarak regime's social control mechanisms which were extended for six months in April, to put those responsible for the raid on trial once they are caught. The laws would provide the SCAF with sweeping powers of detention and the authority to transfer detainees to military and other special courts.

The military council has also announced that it would provide its security forces with the authority to open fire on anyone who attacks government buildings or police stations or anyone who is considered to be a threat to police lives.

Emergency laws threaten democracy

"The Israeli embassy incident has been used to justify the continued state of emergency, which has been controversially kept in place since the revolution," Egypt expert Dr. Elizabeth Iskander told Deutsche Welle. "This is a worrying sign for Egypt's hoped-for progress toward democratic reforms and suggests that the Arab spring may have stalled in Egypt."

The complete abolition of emergency laws has been a central issue for the pro-reformists who led the uprising which ousted Hosni Mubarak.

Any widespread emergency rule would be seen as a return to the kind of tactics used by the former president's security forces to stifle opponents. It is possible these laws could effectively halt the country's already stuttering democratic transition by undermining the political freedoms secured since the uprising.

The military council has already been accused of stalling on the democratic reforms it promised when it took over in the wake of Mubarak's fall; while candidate registration for a parliamentary election is due to open sometime this month, no date has been agreed for the polls which were initially set for September.

The vote could take place in November, although recent events may lead to a further delay.

"Skepticism about the military council's intentions is growing alongside the feeling that the military is a fundamental obstacle blocking the democratic follow-through of the February revolution," Dr. Kristian Ulrichsen, a North Africa and Middle East expert at the London School of Economics, told Deutsche Welle.

Public faith fading fast

Some pro-democracy leaders have already expressed their fears that the ruling SCAF has been looking for reasons to slow the shift to a new system, accusing members of the council of being desperate to retain the political influence and financial privileges they enjoyed under the Mubarak regime.

These fears were stoked by news that both the United States and Israel tried and failed to contact Field Marshal Tantawi for over two hours during the attack on the embassy. Tantawi's mysterious disappearance has stoked speculation that Egypt's generals had deliberately failed to protect the embassy for political gain.

"I suspect the military council will not voluntarily give up power in Egypt," said Ulrichsen. "Many of its top personnel are unchanged from the Mubarak era and the military benefited greatly from economic and commercial concessions under the ousted regime."

Some conspiracy theorists have claimed that the SCAF had agent provocateurs among the mob to trigger the violence, instigating a scenario in which a populace afraid of chaos would turn to the military - who initially provoked the violence - to protect them.

"There is a crisis of trust between the Egyptian people and the military council," said Iskander. "The farcical trial of Mubarak, the way that the council has used military courts to try civilians and its heavy-handedness in trying to control the media, have increased fears on the Egyptian street that reforms will not be implemented."

And Ulrichsen adds that the country has a chequered history in terms of military rule. "Despite the legitimacy the military council gained when it refused to side with Mubarak against the people in February, Egyptians are aware that their country has been ruled by a succession of military rulers since the original military coup in 1952," Ulrichsen said.

According to Ulrichsen the chances of a voluntary transition to democracy are very slim. He even goes as far to say that only a second revolution "could oust the military from its traditional role as protector of the status quo."

Political benefits

It has also been suggested that the military council could be looking to benefit politically from the growing anti-Israel feeling in Egypt - and across the Middle East.

Hosni Mubarak's soft approach to Israel, mirroring that of his predecessor Anwar Sadat who signed peace accords with Israel in return for US aid money, sat uncomfortably with many in Egypt. Now Mubarak is gone, and with Turkey, another important ally, turning away from Israel, there is a growing clamor on Egypt's streets for the peace accords to be torn up.

"One of the first statements released by the military council after it took power was that it would stand by its international agreements," Iskander said. "This was crucial to cool the situation internationally after the shock engendered by Mubarak's resignation. However, the SCAF has tended to be reactionary since it came to power, changing position after large demonstrations are launched."

According to Ulrichsen a change in policy would deal a huge blow to the current status quo in the Middle East.

"Although the Egyptian-Israeli peace has always been a cold one, it has underpinned the 'moderate Arab bloc' that emerged in the 1990s and 2000s. Reneging on the accord would take the region back 30 years and leave Israel feeling isolated and more prone to lashing out in self-defence on all its frontiers," he said.

Author: Nick Amies

Editor: Rob Mudge