Quadriga

The Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has defended his regime with a shocking degree of violence. Despite growing international pressure, crackdowns on government opponents have intensified in their brutality. Assad has shown he's even prepared to turn artillery guns on his own people. The United Nations estimates that more than 3,000 people have been killed since the beginning of the protests in March and says the clashes are getting worse.

The international community recognizes the urgency of the situation and has tried to convince Assad to change direction. He has reacted by warning western nations against launching a military offensive against his country. He's said the entire region would go up in flames if outside intervention is attempted. Though not intimidated by the threats, Europe and NATO are keen to avoid a replay of their recent Libyan campaign. The Arab League is trying to mediate. It's demanding the military pull out of strongholds of the protest movement, and that the government release political prisoners and start negotiations with exiled opposition members. If Assad doesn't meet the demands, Syria could be thrown out of the Arab League. But so far there's no evidence things have changed on the ground.

The UN Security Council has attempted to pass a resolution on the situation, but China and Russia used their vetoes to block it. They say they won't help lay the groundwork for a possible military intervention. If Assad is excluded from the Arab League, the vetoing countries might be persuaded to reconsider their positions. Sanctions are also a possibility. Turkey recently shifted its position, holding talks with the Syrian opposition. All outside parties agree on one point: The conflict in Syria must not escalate into a long and violent civil war with the potential to destabilize the entire region. Assad is gambling that those fears will save him.

What do you think: Syrian Repression - Can Assad Get away with It?

Write to us at: Quadriga@dw-world.de

Our guests

Alexander Bühler

Alexander Bühler - He is a freelance journalist and works for German newspapers and magazines such as Der Spiegel, Die Zeit, NZZ and Cicero as well as national and international radio stations and the German television stations ARD and ARTE. His assignments have included conflict zones in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Kosovo, Haiti, Colombia and Syria covering the drugs, arms and organ trades. He has also made documentaries on emergency aid (Haiti and Pakistan) and the prevention of natural catastrophes (Bolivia). He studied history, political science and anthropology in Heidelberg, Mexico City and Cologne.

Heiko Wimmen

Heiko Wimmen -- a fellow of the Heinrich-Böll foundation. His area of expertise is political systems and the dynamics of civil conflicts in mixed ethnic-religious societies in the Middle East and the Balkans. From 1997 to 2002 he worked as a freelance broadcast journalist in Beirut. He's currently working on a dissertation project with the Middle East and Africa research group at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).

Ahmed Badawi

Ahmed Badawi – After a course in Development Studies at the University of London, Ahmed Badawi joined the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik) as a research associate. He earned his doctorate in political science from Humboldt University. He has worked for the Institute of Development and Peace, University of Duisburg-Essen, the Oxford Research Group and the International Crisis Group. His research focused on Palestinian politics, the Israeli Palestinian conflict and the political economy of policy change. Prior to leaving Egypt in 1999, he used to work as a print and TV journalist and as a community development specialist. He is now a Research Fellow at the Zentrum Moderner Orient where he is studying representations of Europe held by contemporary Egyptian Islamists.