Jamaica in Germany?

In the run up to the election, Germany's Christian Democratic Union and the free-market liberal Free Democratic Party and their supporters, including virtually all pro-business opinion leaders, had banked on a victory for Angela Merkel with a black-yellow majority in the Bundestag.

Throughout the brief campaign season, the polls seemed to indicate that this was possible. When the election returns showed that this coalition would not fly, it did not take long for several leading CDU and FDP politicians to toy with the idea of seducing the Greens into the so-called Jamaica coalition.

For the Greens, however, the Jamaica coalition would be a lot less pleasant than the name suggests. In fact, this option has nothing to do with lounging in a hammock on a tropical island, sipping a coconut cocktail. For the eco-friendly Greens it would be more about swallowing a bitter pill.

Labor Market

The party platforms of the Greens and the CDU/CSU and FDP on labor market reforms could not be more diametrical. The conservative black-yellow duo would like to weaken labor unions, ease job-protection measures, and make wage negotation an issue settled between unions and companies. The Green are against all of these measures. They want to mitigate the harsh effects of the Hartz IV labor market reforms and introduce a minimum wage. Jamaica would seem to fail in this political field.

Health care

The ideas on health insurance are radically different. The Greens want to expanded the state health insurance to a more comprehensive plan in which public servants and self-employed individuals pay into Germany's public health funds. The Union parties and FDP, while also proposing a nationwise health care plan, would make each person, regardless of income, pay the same insurance fees for coverage. The FDP would like to take one step further and completely privatize the remaining public health insurance providers in Germany. The Greens see such a move as an affront to Germany's system of solidarity.

Budget policy

Friedrich Merz's controversial tax reform caused the CDU some worry

In the field of finance and tax policies, the three parties may have more in common than they would like to admit. The black-yellow-green coalition would probably not have too much difficulty uniting on a moderate income-tax reform, even if it wouldn't be quite as simple as Friedrich Merz's beer-coaster solution (which foresaw every German being able to do his taxes on something the size of a coaster). In budgetary questions, the Greens may actually have more in common with the CDU than the SPD. The Eco-party and the CDU with the FDP all would like to lower corporate taxes while shutting costly tax loopholes.

Energy

The parties' differences on energy and environmental policy would look to be insurmountable, though some from the CDU in particular have suggested that cooperation would be possible. Most Greens would not be willing to budge on core Green issues like their hard-fought victory in phasing out nuclear energy in Germany. The Christian Union and the Free Democrats, on the other hand, want to allow nuclear power plants to continue on and are far less supportive of renewable energies. They would cut subsidies here and loosen clean-air legislation to support business.

One possible area of cooperation, however, is taking on the King Kong-style practices of the gas and power utilities, who seek to demolish healthy competition.

Foreign and Domestic Security

Guenther Beckstein is not exactly beloved by the Greens

Finally, the differences on immigration, security, and foreign policy are great enough that at least one party -- most likely the Greens -- would get squeezed out of the picture. Germany's Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer has already said he would not be part of a Merkel-led government. It is well known that the Greens and their former coalition partners the SPD are strong supporters of Turkey being in the EU, while Merkel and the CDU/CSU, as well as the FDP, oppose a full membership.

In addition, the Greens tend to have a more lax policy on immigation than the Christian Democrats. A visit of Bavarian Interior Minister Beckstein provoked outrage in the largely immigrant community of Kreuzberg in Berlin, which is also the only electoral district with a direct Green representative.