Plans for UK-France defense alliance driven by new strategic realities

EU powers wake up to post-special relationship world

With many defense analysts suggesting that the US under President Barack Obama is more concerned with turning Washington's security focus toward China, Europe’s perceived weak involvement in Afghanistan could ultimately lead to the removal of the "special" from the "special relationship."

A defense pact could provide both nations with support

This repositioning by the United States will have the most effect on the UK which will no doubt continue to view the US as its most important strategic partner. But in time, Britain will have to look closer to home for support - which is where France may come in.

Richard Gowan, an EU security and defense expert at the European Center for Foreign Relations, believes that France could find the kind of strategic partnership with Britain that it has so far been denied in the wider structure of the EU.

"French generals and policy-makers have been frustrated by the lack of enthusiasm for really serious military cooperation among other EU members - especially Germany," Gowan told Deutsche Welle.

"The security challenges of today are increasingly difficult to address as single states," Seaboyer said. "However, the EU is a lot slower in getting security and defense cooperation effectively going than some would like. Action is often easier and faster when cooperating with one other very strong partner."

"France and the UK have a lot of similar interests given that they are the only two nuclear weapon powers in the EU," he added. "That gives them significantly different interests in this important field than all other EU members, including Germany."

EU strategic landscape facing upheaval

Could Merkel's Germany be frozen out by a strong European defense pact between France and Britain?

Discussions in the past over alliances within the EU or a stronger collective EU defense policy have caused some criticism among those who believe such actions could undermine organizations such as NATO and cause friction with the United States. However, Richard Gowan believes that a Franco-British alliance would show the opposite to be true.

"An effective Franco-British alliance could act as the main European 'pillar' of NATO, especially if Germany and other NATO powers grow war-shy after the Afghan experience," he said.

"Over the Atlantic, the US will probably be delighted if the Franco-British cooperation succeeds. The Obama administration favors a stronger Europe, and Nicolas Sarkozy has dropped France's traditional anti-NATO stance. This is good not only for European defense but transatlantic ties too. But other European countries may feel sidelined."

Experts divided over alliance's effect on Franco-German axis

Richard Gowan believes Germany may be the biggest loser in this deal if Britain and France come closer together.

"Germany's failure to become a really 'normal' military power has been a disappointment to advocates of EU defense over the last decade," he said. "With Germany increasingly openly playing the role of Europe's financial arbiter, France and the UK seem set to play a similarly predominant role on security. The European project seems to be breaking off in different strategic directions."

Dr. Hilmar Linnenkamp, an international security expert at the German Institute for Security and International Affairs, disagrees. He believes the effect of an alliance on Germany’s standing in terms of European security and in relations with France and Britain would be negligible.

"Clearly, Britain and France consider each other the only serious players in military capabilities in Europe," Linnenkamp told Deutsche Welle. "But the Germans remain the third and will not give up their close relationship with France."

"Germany continues to work toward multilateral cooperation more than bilateral arrangements. The UK-France focus is mainly on 'strategic' assets like nuclear submarines or aircraft carriers. More down-to-earth capabilities will probably require wider participation. All in all, I do not see Germany being worried about the renovation of French-British cooperation."

Author: Nick Amies

Editor: Rob Mudge