Egyptians hoping ElBaradei can provide change they can believe in

ElBaradei's popularity born from frustration

Egypt's opposition parties suffer from myriad problems

"The opposition has been weak and stagnant for so long that it is no surprise that they are rallying behind ElBaradei," Hamzawy said. "They have very little representation in parliament, their work and ability to reach out effectively to constituencies has been heavily restricted since the state of emergency came into power in 1981 and they have failed to convince Egyptians that they have a solid platform and policies."

"The opposition is splintered along an ideological divide, between Islamists and secularists and its potential power has been stripped by constant in-fighting. Those who are in a position of relative power are there because they have struck a deal with the government; they agree to limit their reach in return for a guaranteed percentage of seats."

Mubarak remains cagey as mouthpieces take aim

Mubarak lets his subordinates and cronies do the talking

President Mubarak has yet to publicly respond to ElBaradei's government-baiting and claims of a lack of democracy in Egypt. Earlier this month while in Germany for an operation to remove his gall bladder, Mubarak said that ElBaradei was welcome to run for president as long as he respected the constitution.

But the president bristled when asked in the same news conference whether ElBaradei was a national hero. "We do not need a national hero, here or there," the president said.

While Mubarak himself refuses to openly criticise the former diplomat and IAEA chief, his government and media mouthpieces have been taking aim. Osama Saraya, editor of the government's flagship daily newspaper al-Ahram, has accused ElBaradei of being "ill-informed" and "an American stooge" while Minister of State for Legal and Parliamentary Affairs Moufid Shehab said ElBaradei was out of touch and knew nothing about the challenges facing today's Egypt.

Not all opposition groups have joined behind ElBaradei either. The Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's largest opposition group, has announced it would not support him. "Those who support ElBaradei are an elitist bloc with no roots in the Egyptian street," senior Brotherhood leader Mohammed Habib wrote in the independent newspaper al-Masry al-Youm.

Observers talk up potential dynastic succession

Lack of military background may count against Gamal

It is still not clear whether Mubarak will stand again in 2011 with some observers believing he will hand power to his son Gamal in the hope of creating a dynasty, a move which may add weight to ElBaradei's claims that Egypt has been following the pattern of Pharaoic regimes for the past 7,000 years.

"Of course the amendments made to the constitution and the limitations placed on independent candidates for the presidency have been put in place by Mubarak to protect his rule and keep the power within his regime," Hamzawy said.

"Now his son Gamal is being groomed, it looks as though this will continue. I personally believe that Hosni Mubarak, if his health holds, will run for a sixth term."

If Gamal, who heads the policy secretariat of the ruling National Democratic Party, is not named as Mubarak's successor, Egypt's intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, a close aide to the president, is the next most likely candidate.

"Mubarak knows that there is a certain amount of opposition to his plans for a dynastic solution to the succession question and knows that it would be difficult for him to anoint Gamal should he decide not to run himself," Almut Moeller, a Middle East expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, told Deutsche Welle.

Egypt faces an uncertain future

Moeller believes that the political instruments Mubarak has installed during nearly 30 years of rule can almost guarantee that his party and regime will continue to run Egypt after 2011. What is less clear is the future the country will face after the next presidential election.

"If Egypt gets more of the same in terms of a ruling government, it's very hard to say how Egyptians will react," Moeller said. "There has been a growing opposition movement and unease within Egyptian society for some time now. If there is an eruption, a revolt, then it is very hard to say how the regime would respond to that."

Author: Nick Amies

Editor: Rob Mudge