Success in Afghanistan hindered by Pakistan's dangerous balancing act

Anti-terror partner and Taliban supporter

When Pakistan joined the US 'war on terror,' it found that it was under pressure to fight the very groups that its intelligence service had cultivated. It was then faced with the dangerous balancing act of doing enough in the fight against militants to secure US support, while allowing the militants to continue their operations as part of Pakistan's external strategic policies.

Pakistan's support for the US has seen a rise in violence

In recent years, Pakistan's support for the US has led to some militants turning on their master; one of the factors behind the increased levels of terrorism within Pakistan which have made the Pakistani government’s balancing act even more difficult.

"These military operations in the tribal areas are very controversial in Pakistan and there is great resentment amongst the public," Dr. Shaikh said. "Many see the Pakistani Army fighting a battle at the behest of the US and fighting a war that the US would rather not get involved with. The military and government is very concerned about the opposition and are wary of inflaming the situation further."

Pakistan hedging its bets over Afghanistan's post-war direction

Now, more than ever, Pakistan sees covert support for the Taliban as way of hedging its bets in any post-conflict Afghanistan. Experts within Pakistan have serious doubts over the prospects of the US winning the war and see the Taliban as a useful future ally to protect its interests in Afghanistan against its arch-rival India.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai enjoys India's support

"If the US and its allies withdraw from Afghanistan after failing to defeat the Taliban, then there is a chance that Afghanistan will return to the regional rivalries and divisions which were prevalent during the 1990s," Jeremy Binnie, senior analyst for terrorism and insurgence at Jane's Defense, told Deutsche Welle. "This could leave the region open to Central Asian powers who may take advantage of this situation to wage proxy wars against each other. Having the Taliban onside could help Pakistan confront India should it try and exert greater influence there in any potential power vacuum."

India has been working to retain its significant influence over Afghan President Hamid Karzai and his allies from the former anti-Taliban Northern Alliance ever since the Taliban was ousted in 2002. Pakistan's support for the Taliban is seen as a way of countering India's push for dominance in Central Asia, much in the same way as the ISI-sponsored militants fought to stop India claiming Kashmir.

Officially, of course, Pakistan has not acknowledged any of these factors, claiming instead that its domestic terror problem and financial dire straits mean that it cannot do any more than it is to push on against the Taliban and totally eradicate the militants from its border regions. Despite pressure from the US the Pakistani military has ruled out expanding its current operation into North Waziristan for at least a year.

Fears over Taliban's Pakistani sanctuary

Taliban, safe in Pakistan, may stage a final push for Kabul

Some analysts fear that the Taliban may take the opportunities offered by the relative freedom afforded them in North Waziristan to retreat from US troop surges in Afghanistan and bide their time until Western forces begin their troop reductions in 2011. Experts are concerned that the Taliban will then choose this moment to return when troop levels are at their lowest to fight their way into a deal which could see them return to power in some capacity in the Afghan government.

Only a huge change in fortunes for Western forces in Afghanistan could change Pakistan's decision, forcing it to choose its tentative allegiance with the West over its covert support for the militants.

If the West wants Pakistan to make a choice now to influence its own chances of success in Afghanistan, it is faced with very few options as Dr. Shaikh explained.

"The West has its hands tied to a certain extent and Pakistan knows this," she said. "Any successful solution in Afghanistan needs Pakistan on side. The US has tried the 'carrot and stick' approach with threats to cut aid coupled with promises of huge economic assistance if Pakistan severs ties with the Taliban but this hasn't and will not work. This is down to the fear of India and when the US calls India a force for stability in the region, this only strengthens Pakistan's resolve not to cut its assets loose."

Author: Nick Amies

Editor: Rob Mudge