Troop increase for Afghanistan must be linked to reforms, says expert

From your long experience in Afghanistan, can President Karzai be trusted and can he make the changes that are required now?

President Karzai is under intense pressure to carry out reforms and weed out corruption

President Karzai was I think the best person in 2001 to lead the interim administration. I don't think that either the Americans or the Europeans supported him enough in the first few years. We allowed the commanders and the war lords to remain in power. They were the ones who brought about corruption and bad government and President Karzai was virtually unable to do anything about it.

So I think what's really happened over the past three years is that the President has given up and has decided that if he wanted to continue to stay in power, he better have dealings with these various nasty figures whom we foreigners seem to be willing to coopt. He just has lacked the means to do it and enough pressure and support to do so.

There is of course now talk about an exit strategy in a few years, especially if clear progress hasn't been achieved by then. And according to public sentiment the Afghan mission already is pretty much doomed. If you try to look two years ahead how could Afghanistan look in your estimation?

That very much depends on how we are able to influence and help President Karzai to carry out the reforms we want. It certainly will not happen if on the one side we ask President Karzai for example to get rid of his brother in Kandahar and at the same time the CIA continues to subsidize him.

There has to be a serious approach to the issue and we also need to tell Karzai that there is a lot criticism about him having General Dostum as an ally. But remember over a year and a half ago he was trying to get rid of him and the ISAF and the military forces said if you get rid of him fine, but you are on your own, we are not going to intervene, if he creates a problem. No wonder that he eventually ended up doing a deal with General Dostum.

There is a lot of talk and expectations are already building over the upcoming Afghanistan conference to be held early next year. Can this conference bring about real change?

To be honest, an international conference, unless it is very carefully prepared and its results are already clear, is a usesless excercise. At best it is a band aid. There were some, like the one in Bonn, which are of course absolutely essential. But governments seemed to find it easier to spend money in an international conference, rather than ensuring that there are major changes on the ground.

If you could give advice as to a concrete step in Afghanistan to both the Americans and the Europeans what would you tell them?

I don't believe that the Afghans can't have or don't want a representative government. They do, they want a representative government, they've had a parliament in the 1960s, they have shuras and jirgas, so they are used to this. They also understand the minimal concepts of the rule of law and the judiciary and the police system. So we cannot fight the Taliban unless we also take care of these issues. And this is why it is so important to insist on changes and quick changes now, because we don't have all the time in the world to either persuade the Afghans that they should support the government and we don't have very much time to persuade our public opinion that we need to stay there.

The interview was conducted by Michael Knigge at the EU Washington Forum organised by the European Union Institute for Security Studies.

Editor: Rob Mudge