Europe pledges more aid for Pakistan at joint summit

The EU not only pledged an additional 72 million euros (100 million dollars) in humanitarian aid to Pakistan on Wednesday, it also - and more importantly for Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari - agreed to consider his country for inclusion in a preferential trade scheme from 2012.

However, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso underlined that this would take time, saying the EU's goal was to "gradually build up the trade relationship."

Times are currently hard for Pakistan. As well as dealing with a bloody Taliban insurgency in its northern border regions, the humanitarian crisis which has arisen from that conflict and a campaign of urban terror which has hit a number of its main cities, the country is also being battered by the global economic crisis.

"The first Pakistan-EU summit reflects the EU's strong political support for the democratic government of Pakistan," the Pakistani foreign ministry said in a statement last week. "It is explicit recognition of Pakistan's important role in promoting peace, stability and development in the region."

Pakistan's democracy at stake?

Europe seems to be stepping up. But to what extent can Pakistan rely on the EU as a partner who is ready to support its delicate state of democracy at such a critical time?

"The EU has been a force for democracy in Pakistan for some years now and was careful not to align itself with the Musharraf dictatorship through the years of turmoil," Shada Islam, head of the Asia program at the European Policy Center in Brussels, told Deutsche Welle.

"The EU was always in favor of a multiparty democracy and was always a supporter of human rights and the rule of law. The EU also made an impressive contribution during the 2008 elections with its observer mission. What came from that is a democratic blueprint which Pakistan is working to implement and as such the EU has a credible profile in terms of the promotion of democracy."

Zardari's visit to Brussels comes at a time of increasing attacks by Taliban militants as fears grow that Islamist extremists are exacting revenge for a six-week military offensive against them in three northwest districts. Taliban-linked attacks have killed around 2,000 people in Pakistan since July 2007.

In a draft summit communiqué, the EU said that it would call for international support for Pakistan's efforts against Taliban-led extremists but also an "integrated long-term strategy, which includes social economic development, civilian law-enforcement structures and the rule of law, in order to secure the gains of the present counter-insurgency operations on a permanent basis."

EU provides balance in counter-insurgency mission

The US gives the most support to the counter-insurgency

"In contrast to US military power, the EU has been concentrating on the civilian aspect; a soft power surge," said Islam. "This is done through a 'hearts and minds' approach, using development aid and the promotion of a more balanced counter-insurgency policy. This means the EU offers support for education initiatives which provide alternatives to the madrasses which are seen as a breeding ground for extremism and the application of the EU's successful deradicalization program."

"Where the EU can help most is to financially support the democratic government and be there for the post-offensive era when rehabilitation and rebuilding will be very important in keeping extremism at bay," she said.

According to Daniel Korski, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, the EU's involvement in other aspects of the counter-insurgency mission has proved to be as important as any military investment.

"The EU has provided its support for the law and order reform which is very important in creating stability and providing support for the government," Korski said. "Creating a stable and competent police force and a working judiciary system gives people confidence in the government. The EU should do more in its support for the training and support for the police and judiciary system in Pakistan, and not just in the flashpoint border areas and the main cities currently being targeted by insurgents and extremists."

More visible and financial support needed for refugees

The fighting in the Swat Valley and northern provinces has taken a huge toll on the people of the region with UN figures suggesting as many as 2.5 million Pakistanis have been displaced by the conflict. In the summit draft, the EU says it is ready to provide "further assistance if necessary" to help the refugees, on top of the 5.5 million euros ($7.6 million) it pledged in May.

Fears are high that extremists could prey on refugees

"The EU was fast in reacting to the crisis but much more urgently needs to be done and it has recognized that," Shada Islam said. "What the EU needs to do, apart from increasing its aid, is be very visible in the refugee camps and show its support. The religious groups fighting the government are already in these camps and if there is a sign that the West's help is slow, they will strengthen their grip."

The draft also emphasizes the "importance of efforts to normalize relations with India," amidst ongoing tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors over encroaching extremism and the ever-present Kashmir question. If the EU is hoping to maneuver itself into a mediation role between Pakistan and India, it could be in for a rude awakening, according to Daniel Korski.

Kashmir and proliferation a step too far for Europe

"Just because the West has discovered the links between the worsening security situation in the region and the dispute over Kashmir, it doesn't mean that these are as clear to those involved there," Korski said. "India especially doesn't appreciate meddling in that area and so the EU will have a tough task mediating on that topic."

"What the EU can do to help is to encourage and get involved in areas where there are common problems that neither country can solve alone, like reconstruction, infrastructure and trade. EU involvement away from flashpoints can help build confidence. That's the EU's best course of action," he said.

The EU will take a support role against proliferation

Finally, the draft communiqué sets out a possible topic of discussion over nuclear proliferation. The EU and Pakistan "should work together to prevent the proliferation of nuclear materials and technology" and should hold regular expert meetings on non-proliferation, it says. Again, the EU could find itself out of its depth.

"On the question of proliferation, it's very difficult for the EU to have a role in this," Korski said. "President Sarkozy has floated the idea that France may help in some capacity but with the US and China having such a large say and influence over Pakistan's nuclear situation, it's more likely that the EU will continue in its current support role as the US and China maintain their pressure on Pakistan in regard to proliferation."

Author: Nick Amies/nk

Editor: Rob Mudge/Susan Houlton