Hope for Afghan mission?

Despite a string of suicide attacks in Afghanistan in which the Taliban killed eight members of the Afghan Local Police (ALP) and three US soldiers this week, US General John Allen welcomed German journalists to ISAF's headquarters in Kabul this week and exuded optimism.

His mood seemed diametrically opposed to the current situation in Afghanistan and recent controversies over US soldiers burning copies of the Koran, an increase in attacks by Afghan security forces, and a shooting spree in Kandahar by a US serviceman that killed 17. 

"This is a really important investigation. It's got to be done correctly," Allen told the media.

The US version of the incident so far is that Robert Bales sneaked out of his compound before dawn on March 11 and killed 17 people in their beds. But many Afghans, including lawmakers, doubt that he acted alone.

Allen said, however, that the US military's evidence pointed at one shooter only and "the US's Afghan counterparts had concluded the same."

Military intervention

The US general said that he believed the military operation in Afghanistan was on the right path. "I think the campaign is leading us exactly where we wanted to go.“

He also said the buildup of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) was going more quickly than planned and the overall target of 352,000 soldiers and police officers, which was originally set for 2014, had been reached.

He pointed out that around 90 percent of military operations were now carried out alongside Afghan forces and stated that controversial nighttime raids on insurgents had always been joint operations.

Within the next year, he continued, the Afghans will assume full military responsibility so that Western coalition forces can start withdrawing.

'Power vacuum'

As for the original plan to have international security forces out of Afghanistan by the end of 2014, Allen indicated that insurgents should not get their hopes up.

"We're not leaving Afghanistan at the end of 2014 … So if you're a Taliban soldier and you have been told, 'just wait until 2014, there won't be any international presence in Afghanistan and the ANSF is incompetent,' it's going to be a big surprise for you if you decide to go into the field for the first time on the first of January 2015 …They're going to run into Americans out there after 2014 and they're going to run into NATO forces after 2014."

Addressing the Senate Armed Services Committee not long ago, Allen warned there would be a "geopolitical power vacuum" if Western forces leave Afghanistan. #

And in light of the strategic partnership agreement which is to be signed next month, the general was convinced that most Afghans wanted to continue working with international forces.

"And their alternatives frankly aren't very good. When the Afghans think about the future, and they think about all that has been accomplished in partnership with the international community, I think they desire a long-term relationship with us,“ he said.

'Human not physical terrain'

Allen said he expected the fighting and armed attacks to continue on through next year - especially in the south and east of Afghanistan.

Beyond that, however, he was not sure what to expect. Based on his extensive experience in Iraq, it is all a matter of politics.

"The key terrain in an insurgency is not the physical terrain, it is the human terrain.“          

This requires more trust in Afghanistan's institutions as well as transparent strategic cooperation.

Author: Sandra Petersmann / sb
Editor: Anne Thomas