Scottish referendum

Originally, Alex Salmond, the leader of the Scottish national party, wanted a referendum on more devolution from London. But British Prime Minister David Cameron has said it has to be all or nothing. So Salmond is now campaigning hard for independence and is pulling out all the stops to convince the Scots they would be better off without any interference from London.

"Scotland would be governed the way the people of Scotland want it to be. We would raise our own taxes, decide on our own spending priorities and whether we want to go to illegal wars in Iraq - the answer is no. There would be very substantial differences," says Salmond.

Alyn Smith, a member of the European Parliament from the Scottish National Party, admits the vote could be tight but that the tide is turning in favor of Scottish independence.

"We are seeing growing support for more power for Scotland. The latest opinion poll has 51 percent in favor and 49 percent against," says Smith.

Risky split?

The assumption in Edinburgh is that if the Scots do split from the rest of Great Britain, they would automatically become a member of the EU. But officials in Brussels are doubtful whether the case is that straightforward.

"If Scotland leaves the UK, it would have to have some form of accession talks with the EU," says Fabian Zuleeg from the European Policy Centre, a think tank in Brussels. This notion is strongly rejected by Smith who stresses that Scotland is already part of the EU.

"The idea that Scotland, as a net contributor with oil, gas and fish, a rich and prosperous nation, would need to leave the EU and then re-enter is not a serious proposition," argues Smith.

According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, an independent Scotland would become the world's fifth richest nation - a major asset for the EU. But business aside, there are some serious political ramifications if the Scots go it alone.

Separatist concerns

Already countries such as Spain and Belgium are looking with some unease at developments in Scotland, fearing repercussions on their own separatist regions. Madrid has already signaled it could block Scotland's EU bid for fear it could reinvigorate the Basque separatists.

"This could serve as a positive precedent for other movements within the EU. Scotland would have to convince other partners that their case is a special one that wouldn't set a precedent for others," says Zuleeg.

Joining the EU comes with strings attached. Eurocrats point out that any new member of the EU must automatically commit to eventually becoming part of the monetary union, the eurozone. Scotland may be pro-European, but it's not keen on introducing the bloc's single currency. And many argue it would be madness to ditch the British pound.

British success story

"We have enjoyed a relationship with our neighbor of the kind that other European nations are still striving for. Fiscal union, a single market underpinning the largest free trade area when it was first established, monetary union and a single currency, one of the most successful in history," says Lewis McDonald, a Labour Party member of the Scottish parliament.

For Britain, the loss of Scotland would mean far less power within the EU. Fewer voting rights, fewer members in the European parliament. Britain would no longer be a counterweight to France and Germany. And during these eurosceptic times, that could unleash a far bigger debate, as Fabian Zuleeg of the European Policy Centre explains.

"If there are any fundamental changes in the UK's ties with the EU, there would be pressure from eurosceptics to call a referendum on whether the UK should be part of the EU. I'm not sure such a referendum would be won by pro-Europeans. There is the risk that any disintegration of the UK could result in a break with the EU," warns Zuleeg.

Currently at least 20 percent of Scotland's three million inhabitants are undecided about how to vote in the 2014 referendum. And given the scope of the euro crisis, Scotland's bid for independence and potential EU accession is not a major topic of debate in Brussels - at least not yet.

Author: Vanessa Mock / nk
Editor: Gabriel Borrud