The Specter of Hooliganism Returns

German landscape different from Japan, Portugal

The German authorities are confident that the security measures and cooperations which helped to make Euro 2004 a relatively trouble-free tournament will have a similar effect on the World Cup. But John Williams urged caution. "Germany 2006 will have differences that must not be overlooked."

Williams cites the banning orders and traveling restrictions implemented by the joint European police initiative as a major factor in preventing German hooligans and ringleaders from attending the Euro 2004 tournament. But he is conscious of the differences between Portugal and Germany as host countries.

"Germany has a reputation for its fans. This may dissuade some casual supporters from abroad from attending the World Cup but encourage others with hooligan intent to travel in numbers. The security may be tight at the stadiums but there are no laws banning people from the streets and bars," Williams said.

While this, in essence, is true, Andreas Morbach from the German police's Central Sports Intelligence Unit said that public places would be protected: "There is a law in Germany which gives the police preventive powers. We can take known trouble-makers into preventive custody and place prohibition orders on certain areas, and even whole cities."

"Also, on specific days such as match days, we can order known hooligans to report to a police station at a certain time. It is possible in these situations to make them return every two hours in some cases."

John Williams accepts that while police identification of ringleaders would help, there would be more than the usual catalysts for trouble in Germany.

Violence may have only tenous link to soccer

Williams believes there are a number of risk factors for the World Cup: German hooligans may want to defend their turf; extreme displays of nationalism by German and visiting fans may incite minority groups within German society such as Turkish or Eastern European immigrants, and that potential violence may erupt between traveling fans and locals aggrieved at having large numbers of boisterous foreign supporters in their cities.

Saying that, no-one can be sure of what is gong to happen until nearer the time. "We have monitored hooligan Web sites and there is a lot of boasting and challenging about the World Cup. But it is very hard to tell which of these are credible threats. The tournament is still 15 months away," Williams concluded.

Andreas Morbach agreed: "It is still too early to tell if there is anything being planned but we know that the German hooligans will not want to lose face. They know they have to make a point."