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Uncertain future

January 10, 2012

The death of President Sanha in a Paris hospital is seen as increasing the potential for instability in Guinea Bissau. The West African state has experienced four coups since independence from Portugal in 1974.

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Malam Bacai Sanha addressing the UN General Assembly in September
Malam Bacai Sanha's dream was of a stable Guinea-BissauImage: picture alliance/Photoshot

Malam Bacai Sanha will go down in the history books not only as a president who spent much of his time in office outside the country, due to poor health, but also as the leader who tried to liberate Guinea-Bissau from corruption, mismanagement and the rule of the military. For Sanha, dialogue was the best means of resolving conflict situations.

"If we want to protect peace, we cannot turn to violence to solve the problems in the armed forces," he said. "We must involve the armed forces in the search for a solution to the problems that we and they are facing."

Time spent in East Germany

Malam Bacai Sanha was born on May 5, 1947 in Quinara in the southwest of the country. He was a member of the Beafade, a small Muslim ethnic group. In 1962, while still only a teenager, he joined the African Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC), led by Amilcar Cabral. Since 1959 the PAIGC had been waging an armed struggle against the country's Portuguese colonial masters.

Party headquarters of the PAIGC
The PAIGC was the first political home for the late president.Image: DW

Because of his activities in the resistance movement, Sanha was forced to go underground. Like many other PAIGC members, his path took him to the Eastern Bloc, in his case the German Democratic Republic, where he studied political science in East Berlin.

Guinea-Bissau's independence was officially recognized by Portugal on September 9, 1974 and soon afterwards Malam Bacai Sanha embarked on a career as a senior government official. He became the administrative head of the coastal region of Biombo, and later governor of Gabu region. He went on to hold various ministerial portfolios under President Joao Bernardo "Nino" Vieira.

With the end of the Cold War and under pressure from western donor nations, Guinea- Bissau moved away from being a one-party state in favor of becoming a multi-party democracy. After "Nino" Vieira was confirmed as president in the country's first democratic elections in 1994, in which the PAIGC won an absolute majority, Malam Bacai Sanha was elected President of the National People's Assembly, a post he held until 1999.

Success on the third attempt

After an attempted military coup in June 1998, led by sacked army commander Ansumane Mane, civil war erupted. Following the ousting of Nino Vieira, Sanha became acting president. In January 2000 he campaigned for the first time as a candidate in the presidential elections but lost to Kumba Yala. Yala's presidency is considered to be one of the most chaotic periods in the country's history. It ended with a bloodless coup.

Votes being counted in the 2009 elections
Malam Bacai Sanha was finally victorious in the 2009 presidential elections.Image: DW

Sanha threw his hat into the ring for the second time in 2005, only to be beaten by ex-President Nino Vieira in the second round. In 2009, Guinea-Bissau was once again plunged into chaos, following the murders of President Vieira and, just a few hours later, the commander-in-chief of the army, Batista Tagme Na Waie. It is still not known who was responsible.

Early presidential elections were called and this time, on his third attempt, Malam Bacai Sanha won. In the second round he garnered more than 60 percent of the votes cast.

Chaos continues

When Sanha was inaugurated as president of Guinea-Bissau, he proposed a social compact with the population, saying "I will do everything possible to ensure that state institutions function in accordance with the constitution and the country's laws. I will create an atmosphere of cooperation, especially with the government, with parliament, and the organs of sovereignty."

But this did not herald the start of more peaceful times for the Guinea-Bissau. On the contrary, the country remained true to its reputation of being one of Africa's most unstable states. In April 2010 the military fired army chief of staff Zamora Induta and seized Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Junior, holding him for several hours. A further coup attempt shook the country in late December 2011.

Uncertain future

By that time Malam Bacai Sanha was in a Paris hospital. He had not been seen in public for several months and not even the prime minister was allowed to visit him. It is not known exactly what the cause of death was. Unconfirmed sources speak of severe diabetes.

Interim President , Raimundo Pereira,
Raimundo Pereira has taken over temporarilyImage: picture-alliance/dpa

Now all eyes are watching Guinea-Bissau to see how the country will respond to the death of its president. Parliamentary President Raimundo Pereira will take over for a transitional period.

Angola's key role

After the almost complete withdrawal of the European Union from Guinea-Bissau, a key role in the process of stabilization falls to Angola, which maintains a small military presence in Guinea-Bissau to assist in the process of reforming the armed forces. During last December's attempted coup the Angolan embassy provided refuge to the prime minister.

Alongside the drug mafia, the army is seen as a major source of the unrest of recent years. Only if Malam Bacai Sanha's successor succeeds in keeping the army under control and stemming the drug trade, does the country have a chance of finally achieving the stability that Sanha had hoped for.

Author: Helena de Gouveia/sh
Editor: Mark Caldwell / rm