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Clinton candidacy

Michael KniggeAugust 11, 2014

By criticizing President Barack Obama's foreign policy, Hillary Clinton is laying the groundwork for her own potential campaign in 2016. But a decision on whether she will, in fact, run is unlikely until later this year.

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Hillary Clinton und Barack Obama
Image: picture-alliance/dpa

If there is anyone who understands how politics works in the US, it is Hillary Clinton. As a former first lady, senator, presidential candidate and secretary of state, she has not only watched, but personally experienced the ups and downs of political campaigns, the machinations of the media and the opposition and the drudgery of political office. As such, when Hillary Clinton opted to give an extensive interview on her foreign policy views to Jeffrey Goldberg of "The Atlantic," it's fair to assume this wasn't intended to be just another Q&A promoting her new book, "Hard Choices."

"It is a sign that Hillary Clinton is seriously considering running for the presidency in 2016," says Heinz Gärtner, director of the Austrian Institute for International Affairs in Vienna, who had previously thought another Clinton candidacy unlikely. "To run for president, you have to distance yourself from the incumbent." Gärtner adds that politicians who don't create enough space between themselves and the incumbent - or their predecessors like Al Gore or Gerald Ford - have ultimately failed to win elections.

In the interview, particularly on Syria, Clinton clearly stakes out her own foreign policy stance. "The failure to help build up a credible fighting force of the people who were the originators of the protests against Assad - there were Islamists, there were secularists, there was everything in the middle - the failure to do that left a big vacuum, which the jihadists have now filled," Clinton told Goldberg.

Consistent stance

"This is consistent with Clinton's positions both in the administration and before. She is basically a believer in the use of military force for humanitarian purposes and is less sensitive than President Obama is and I am to the risk that that entails," says David C. Unger, the long-time member of the New York Times Editorial Board, now an adjunct professor of American foreign policy at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Bologna.

As Obama's previous secretary of state, Clinton had strongly argued for arming the Syrian opposition, but that argument lost out against a more cautious approach generally favored by Obama and others in the administration.

Hillary Clinton speaking at a summit
Clinton had advocated a tougher stance on SyriaImage: picture alliance/dpa

Clinton also takes a shot at what has been described as President Obama's unofficial foreign policy motto, "Don't do stupid stuff" - itself an effort to distance Obama from his predecessor George W. Bush. "Great nations need organizing principles, and 'Don't do stupid stuff' is not an organizing principle," Clinton remarked.

Gärtner takes issue with the underlying assumption that Obama's foreign policy consists merely of trying not to make mistakes. "It's easy to now demand an overarching foreign policy doctrine, particularly in light of the situation in Iraq. But that's very vague. It's much harder to take concrete decisions."

Easy demands, difficult solutions

Nobody - neither the neoconservatives nor leaders like Senator John McCain and Hillary Clinton - is actually calling for American boots on the ground, says Gärtner. He argues that's what it would take to have a realistic chance at quelling those conflicts in the Middle East, but the overwhelming majority of Americans is steadfastly against such an approach.

What's more, says Gärtner, Obama has actually achieved a lot in his foreign policy - such as the nuclear negotiations with Iran, the promised withdrawal from US troops from Iraq and Afghanistan and the chemical weapons deal with Syria. "Obama is being criticized for not having intervened in Syria, but I think it's probably wiser to get rid of the chemical weapons by negotiation than through a military intervention."

Unger also sides with Obama's cautious approach on Syria, but he says that Clinton's criticism of Obama is more than just political posturing. "I would say it's political calculation, but it's not only political calculation. I am sure these are her honest beliefs, as well, and she is entitled to state them."

The US Capitol building
Clinton will likely wait for the midterm elections to make her decisionImage: picture-alliance/dpa

Shoring up the right

That Clinton's more hawkish, interventionist stance will alienate her further from the left-leaning wing of the Democratic Party is only par for the course, notes Unger. "It's my assessment of Hillary's career going back many years that she has always calculated that there are no votes to lose by leaning to more conservative, more new Democrat, more hawkish positions. I am not saying that those are not her honest positions, but she has never worried about losing votes to her left. She has worried about shoring up conservative votes, which has led her to be outspoken on issues she didn't necessarily need to say anything about."

Given her campaign experience from 2008 together with her State Department years and now her public breaking away from the Obama administration, it may look like Hillary Clinton's second run for the White House is all but certain. But that's not necessarily so. Instead, predict Gärtner and Unger, Clinton will probably wait to see how the midterm elections in November play out before making her final decision.