An end to the deadlock?

On Tuesday, July 22, Sam Rainsy (main picture, left), leader of the opposition Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), reached an agreement with Prime Minister Hun Sen (main picture, right) that will see opposition MPs sworn-in on Friday in exchange for electoral reforms and the release of CNRP members jailed last week.

The year-long political deadlock had been triggered by the results of last year's parliamentary election, which international observers claim was marred by irregularities favoring the ruling Cambodia People's Party (CPP). At the time, the 65-year-old Rainsy argued that due to the "too many irregularities" during the election his party simply could not accept the results and suggested that in turn, an independent committee should be created to audit the results.

However, this never happened. As a result, the opposition party decided to boycott the opening of parliament in September of 2013, with their members refusing to take their seats - 55 of the total 123 - up to now.

Throughout this time, the CNRP staged various protests, the latest of which led to the arrest of eight of its members last week on charges of insurrection. If convicted, the politicians are likely to face up to 30 years in prison. Analysts believe that this was the main motive behind Rainsy's willingness to return from Paris and close a deal with Sen.

Tired of deadlock

However, Ou Virak, a political analyst and the president of the Cambodian Centre for Human Rights, also believes that "both sides are also under pressure to strike a deal." He argues that the rival parties "are tired of the deadlock," with the government being pressured by investors on the one hand, and the opposition wanting to enter parliament to be able to collect a salary, on the other.

Nevertheless, there has been no mention of the investigation into the elections results, the main cause of the boycott. "It is my belief that it is no longer part of the opposition demands," says Virak.

Despite this, the CNRP boycott has been "somewhat successful," said Virak. "It really pushed the ruling party into an uncomfortable position, particularly because the boycott dragged on for so long and the government came under pressure from the investment community to settle for the sake of stability."

The devil is in the details

But regardless of the praise coming from the politicians, the agreement is hardly a win, says Virak. "It is basically a temporary relief," he said, warning that the "the vague language of the agreement will come back to haunt the opposition."

"The CNRP walked into this deal with the ruling party without either side having any details of what the reforms will look like," he says. "So once the dust from the deal settles and they start to think about the type language to be used in it, the parties will go back to wrangling."

One of the few things clear about the deal is that the National Election Commission (NEC) will be reformed, a key issue, given that the CNRP has often accused the body of being controlled by the government. The new committee is set to have nine members, four from each of the two main parties and another independent figure chosen by both of them.

But even that doesn't address all the issues essential to the electoral process, says Virak. "If you look at the criticism of the 2013 election, many of the irregularities were related to the so-called Identification Certificates for Elections (ICE), issued solely to allow those citizens to vote who lacked the required identification.

"The NEC issued so many of them that no one knows what happened to them and many are still unaccounted for," Virak told DW. He emphasized that this issue, alongside troubles regarding voter registration, were "quite determining." Nonetheless, they have been completely left out of the agreement, he stressed.

Vague and lacking in meaning

Also mentioned in the deal is a plan to "carry out the reform and strengthening of some major state institutions, especially independent ones that could serve the benefit of the nation and the people and comply with pluralist democracy." As Virak points out, however, no specific organizations are named in the deal, a fact which highlights how "completely vague and probably meaningless" this agreement is.

Although the government and the opposition have yet to agree on an early election date, there are rumors that the next parliamentary election may be held in February 2018. Many expect current PM Hun Sen to run again for office as the 61-year-old former Khmer Rouge cadre has vowed to remain in power until he is 74.

Sen, who has dominated Cambodian politics for almost three-decades, is credited with transforming the country into one of Southeast Asia's fastest growing economies. But he is also regularly criticized by campaigners for ignoring human rights and stamping out dissent.

Last year's electoral results marked Sen's biggest loss at the polls to date. Virak thinks that "change is coming" to Cambodia and believes Sen has "accepted he cannot rule with an iron fist." Young people, he adds, are "unhappy with the ruling party and came out frustrated on election day, also taking to the streets." He adds, however, that the main question is whether this will be enough to push for a change in leadership.